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gcb12390-sup-0001-FigureS1.pdfapplication/PDF166KFigure S1. Percent of global reef cells predicted to experience high-frequency bleaching under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, using the GFDL ESM2M model with (black) and without (gray) a bias correction in the climatological maximum that reduces the frequency of ENSO events in the model (Model 1). An historical climatology (1900–1919) predicts over 50% of global reef cells experiencing severe coral bleaching (more than two bleaching events in 10 years) before the year 2000. A satellite-era climatology (1985–2004) predicts over 50% of global reef cells experiencing high-frequency bleaching by ca. 2030. Results for RCP 6.0 can be found in Fig. 2.
gcb12390-sup-0002-FigureS2.pdfapplication/PDF722KFigure S2. Maps of high-frequency bleaching predictions in model years 2010, 2030, 2050, and 2070 with a 1985–2004 climatology under the moderately high RCP, 6.0 W m−2 by 2100 (black lines in Fig. 1c). Blue represents a reef location without severe bleaching. Green represents a severe bleaching prediction using the GFDL ESM2M model. Red represents a severe bleaching prediction using bias-corrected ESM2M.
gcb12390-sup-0003-FigureS3.pdfapplication/PDF129KFigure S3. Percent of global reef cells predicted to experience high-frequency bleaching in the adaptive response models. Model 2 (a and b) uses a rolling climatological period representative of an adaptive response to recent thermal history over the previous 40, 60, 80, or 100 years. Model 3 (c and d) employs a temporary increase in the bleaching threshold of 1 °C after a bleaching event, which may be representative of a temporary increase in thermal tolerance due to symbiont shuffling or transient community shifts toward more heat-tolerant taxa. Both bleaching models use SST output from the GFDL ESM2M bias-corrected model for the lowest RCP 2.6 (a and c) and moderately low RCP 4.5 (b and d). For comparison, dashed lines in all panels represent the corresponding results from the ‘no adaptive response’ (Model 1) using the 1985–2004 climatology. Results for RCPs 6.0 and 8.5 can be found in Fig. 3.
gcb12390-sup-0004-FigureS4.pdfapplication/PDF98KFigure S4. Percent of global reef cells predicted to experience high-frequency bleaching for the moderately high RCP (6.0 W m−2 by 2100) using the GFDL ESM2M bias-corrected model with a temporary increase in the Degree Heating Month threshold of 1 °C after a bleaching event and four differing rolling climatology windows (Model 4). For example, this model might represent the additive effect of genetic adaptation to recent thermal history and temporary increases in thermal tolerance due to symbiont shuffling.

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