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Figure S1. Climate model ensemble-based projections of coral bleaching and aragonite saturation state for reef locations under RCP2.6.

Figure S2. Climate model ensemble-based projections of coral bleaching and aragonite saturation state for reef locations under RCP4.5.

Figure S3. Climate model ensemble-based projections of coral bleaching and aragonite saturation state for reef locations under RCP6.0.

Figure S4. Histograms of the number (n = 1516) and percent of reef locations within bins for RCP2.6.

Figure S5. Histograms of the number (n = 1718) and percent of reef locations within bins for RCP4.5.

Figure S6. Histograms of the number (n = 1718) and percent of reef locations within bins for RCP6.0.

Figure S7. Percentage change in calcification rate based on multiplying the per unit Ωar change in RCP2.6 as shown in Fig. S1b by 7% (a), 15% (b), and 23% (c).

Figure S8. Percentage change in calcification rate based on multiplying the per unit Ωar change in RCP4.5 as shown in Fig. S2b by 7% (a), 15% (b), and 23% (c).

Figure S9. Percentage change in calcification rate based on multiplying the per unit Ωar change in RCP6.0 as shown in Fig. S3b by 7% (a), 15% (b), and 23% (c).

Figure S10. Average aragonite saturation state at tropical reef locations in the year 2006 calculated from RCP8.5 data.

Table S1. Table showing names of models used for calculating DHWs for each scenario.

Table S2. Models used to calculate aragonite saturation state.

Table S3. Comparison of modeled aragonite saturation state (for the year 2006) with observed 1972–1998 data (from Feely et al., 2009).

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