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Table S1. Summary of fits for β in Fig. 4 of the main text. Standard regression is used to match standard analysis in the literature.

Table S2. Estimates of α from Fig. 2 of the text with point estimates and standard errors from Eqn S2. Not all species have large enough populations for estimates at both sites.

Figure S1. Comparison of sensitivity coefficients applied in observational studies, defined as advance in BBD per °C.

Figure S2. Full season predictions of six states from day of the year 20 for all individuals and of Q. alba. Dots are individuals at 2-day intervals. Thick and thin lines span 68% and 95% of predicted values.

Figure S3. Posterior densities for temperature and chilling parameters (Eqn S5). For species having a significant interaction between seed source and temperature, northern populations have unshaded densities in (a). Positive values accelerate development. For chilling, cold winters increase subsequent development rate.

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