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Appendix S1. Model Specification and Fitting.

Appendix S2. Additional comparisons of contemporary and future climatic suitabilities for different species and climate change scenarios.

Figure S1. High (red), intermediate (blue), and low (gray) suitability plots for (a) A. lasiocarpa, (b) P. engelmannii, (c) P. contorta, and (d) P. ponderosa as well as plots outside the predicted climate envelope (light gray). Only plots currently occupied by the focal species were plotted. State boundaries are outlined by dashed, black lines and the study region is outlined by the bold, black line.

Figure S2. Proportion of FIA plots currently occupied by each species categorized as high (red), intermediate (blue), and low (dark gray) suitability as well as plots outside the climate envelope (light gray) for current climate compared to the future climatic suitabilities under three climate change scenarios for (a) A. lasiocarpa, (b) P. engelmannii, (c) P. contorta, and (d) P. ponderosa.

Figure S3. Implications of changing climate for abundance of suitable areas assuming no migration (i.e., persistence), presented as the probability of species occurrence for (a) A. lasiocarpa, (b) P. engelmannii, (c) P. contorta, and (d) P. ponderosa under current vs. future climate (based on scenario A1B) are presented (gray points) with the percentage of plots transitioning between each suitability category (blue indicates increases, red indicates decreases, and black indicates no change) overlaid. Solid lines separate low suitability plots from plots outside the climate envelope, the dashed lines separate intermediate and low suitability plots, and the dotted line separates high and intermediate suitability plots.

Figure S4. Implications of changing climate for abundance of suitable areas assuming no migration (i.e., persistence), presented as the probability of species occurrence for (a) A. lasiocarpa, (b) P. engelmannii, (c) P. contorta, and (d) P. ponderosa under current vs. future climate (based on scenario B1) are presented (gray points) with the percentage of plots transitioning between each suitability category (blue indicates increases, red indicates decreases, and black indicates no change) overlaid. Solid lines separate low suitability plots from plots outside the climate envelope, the dashed lines separate intermediate and low suitability plots, and the dotted line separates high and intermediate suitability plots.

Table S1. FIA plot sample size and probability of species occurrence thresholds used to define high, intermediate, and low suitability as well as outside the climate envelope (based on true skill statistics; see Methods).

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