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Figure S1 Relationships between the accuracy of generalized additive models (GAM) and boosted regression tree (BRT) models validated with independent and non-independent observations, evaluated with area under the curve of a receiver operating characteristic plot (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS). Figures in the left column are based on climate-only models, while figures in the right column are based on combined climate-soil-land-cover models. Rho (ρ) values for Spearman's rank correlations (P < 0.001 for all), as well as linear regression fits are shown. Dotted lines indicate the 1:1 relationship. A drop in ρ values between climate-only models (left) and combined climate-soil-land-cover models (right) indicates that some species distributions are better predicted when using independent validation in combination with more complex models.

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