International Migration Review
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Original Article
Forecasting Immigration in Official Population Projections Using an Econometric Model†
- †We would like to thank three anonymous referees, the IMR editor, and Nico Keilman for valuable comments on earlier versions of this article.
- [Minor typographical changes have been made to this article since it was first published.]
Abstract
Although substantial research has been conducted to quantify the determinants of international migration, most official population projections do not include such determinants in a formal migration model. Statistics Norway forecasts gross immigration to Norway using an econometric model based on standard migration theories. The main variables include income level, unemployment, and population size in Norway and the sending countries, and the number of immigrants already living in Norway. Projections of exogenous variables are drawn from international and Norwegian sources. Three different alternatives are specified for the income variables, leading to three different forecasts for gross immigration until 2100.