We thank Xun Cao, Erik Gartzke, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch for constructive comments on a previous version of the manuscript. Three anonymous reviewers and the journal's editor, Robert Patman, also provided helpful suggestions. The data and replication syntax can be obtained from the authors upon request. We thank the Suntory Foundation and the Nomura Foundation for their generous financial support.
Political Leadership Changes and the Withdrawal from Military Coalition Operations, 1946–2001†
Article first published online: 30 AUG 2013
© 2013 International Studies Association
International Studies Perspectives
How to Cite
2013) Political Leadership Changes and the Withdrawal from Military Coalition Operations, 1946–2001. International Studies Perspectives, doi: 10.1111/insp.12058, , and . (
[Corrections added 27 February 2015, after original online publication: grammatical changes have been made to this article to improve clarity.]
- Article first published online: 30 AUG 2013
- military coalitions;
- military interventions;
- political leaders;
- leadership turnover;
- troop withdrawal
Several studies have claimed that changes in the political leadership of a country affect foreign policy decision making. The following paper systematically tests this in the context of states' participation in military coalition operations. By building on previous theoretical models, the authors argue that new leaders may differ from their predecessors in that the former (i) have dissimilar preferences with regard to the involvement in military interventions, (ii) evaluate relevant information differently, and (iii) are less likely to be entrapped in intervention policies. Ultimately, the net effect of these factors should make it more likely that political leadership turnovers are associated with premature withdrawals from ongoing military coalitions. The theory is tested by quantitative analyses of newly collected data on military coalition operations in 1946–2001 and a qualitative case study. The authors find strong and robust support for their argument.