• Open Access

Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis

Authors

  • Richard D. Smith,

    Corresponding author
    1. Faculty of Public Health & Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
    • Correspondence: Richard D Smith. Department of Global Health and Development Faculty of Public Health & Policy London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK.

      E-mail: Richard.Smith@lshtm.ac.uk

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  • Marcus R. Keogh-Brown

    1. Faculty of Public Health & Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Abstract

Background

Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries.

Objectives

To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009.

Methods

A single-country whole-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure.

Results

Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses.

Conclusions

The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.

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