Current address: Wildlife Biology Program, School of Forestry, The University of Montana, Missoula, Montana 59812, U.S.A.
Combining Band Recovery Data and Pollock's Robust Design to Model Temporary and Permanent Emigration
Article first published online: 24 MAY 2004
Volume 57, Issue 1, pages 273–281, March 2001
How to Cite
Lindberg, M. S., Kendall, W. L., Hines, J. E. and Anderson, M. G. (2001), Combining Band Recovery Data and Pollock's Robust Design to Model Temporary and Permanent Emigration. Biometrics, 57: 273–281. doi: 10.1111/j.0006-341X.2001.00273.x
- Issue published online: 24 MAY 2004
- Article first published online: 24 MAY 2004
- Received Jane 1999. Revised May 2000. Accepted June 2000.
- Band recovery;
- Breeding probability;
- Open populations;
- Robust design
Summary. Capture-recapture models are widely used to estimate demographic parameters of marked populations. Recently, this statistical theory has been extended to modeling dispersal of open populations. Multistate models can be used to estimate movement probabilities among subdivided populations if multiple sites are sampled. Frequently, however, sampling is limited to a single site, Models described by Burnham (1993, in Marked Individuals in the Study of Bird Populations, 199–213), which combined open population capture-recapture and band-recovery models, can be used to estimate permanent emigration when sampling is limited to a single population. Similarly, Kendall, Nichols, and Hines (1997, Ecology51, 563–578) developed models to estimate temporary emigration under Pollock's (1982, Journal of Wildlife Management46, 757–760) robust design. We describe a likelihood-based approach to simultaneously estimate temporary and permanent emigration when sampling is limited to a single population. We use a sampling design that combines the robust design and recoveries of individuals obtained immediately following each sampling period. We present a general form for our model where temporary emigration is a first-order Markov process, and we discuss more restrictive models. We illustrate these models with analysis of data on marked Canvasback ducks. Our analysis indicates that probability of permanent emigration for adult female Canvasbacks was 0.193 ( ) and that birds that were present at the study area in year i— 1 had a higher probability of presence in year i than birds that were not present in year i— 1.