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Keywords:

  • Ardea cinerea;
  • Birds;
  • Census data;
  • Herons;
  • Kalman filter;
  • Lapwings;
  • Leslie matrix models;
  • Maximum likelihood;
  • Prediction;
  • Productivity;
  • Ring–recovery data;
  • State–space;
  • Vanellus vanellus;
  • Winter weather

Summary. In studies of wild animals, one frequently encounters both census and mark-recapture-recovery data. We show how a state-space model for census data in combination with the usual multinomial-based models for ring-recovery data provide estimates of productivity not available from either type of data alone. The approach is illustrated on two British bird species. For the lapwing, we calibrate how its recent decline could be due to a decrease in productivity. For the heron, there is no evidence for a decline in productivity, and the combined analysis increases significantly the strength of logistic regressions of survival on winter severity.