This paper summarises the results of a project initially undertaken for the Office of National Statistics (ONS) of the UK and jointly supported by them and HM Treasury. A steering committee provided very useful feedback during the early part of the work. Richard Clare, Geoff Reed, Keith Vernon and Colin Yeend were particularly helpful in providing both data and suggestions. We also wish to thank Stephen Hall for helpful comments. The current state of the work described here at which estimates of UK real GDP are produced on a monthly basis was achieved with support from ESRC research grant L116251012. Richard Smith also gratefully acknowledges partial financial support for this and an earlier revision from the ESRC under the project R000237334 ‘Automatic Leading Indicators’ and a 2002 Leverhulme Major Research Fellowship. Any errors remain our own.
An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth*
Article first published online: 27 JAN 2005
The Economic Journal
Volume 115, Issue 501, pages F108–F129, February 2005
How to Cite
Mitchell, J., Smith, R. J., Weale, M. R., Wright, S. and Salazar, E. L. (2005), An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth. The Economic Journal, 115: F108–F129. doi: 10.1111/j.0013-0133.2005.00974.x
- Issue published online: 27 JAN 2005
- Article first published online: 27 JAN 2005
A range of monthly series are currently available giving indications of short-term movements in output in the UK. The main aim of this paper is to suggest a formal and coherent procedure for grossing these monthly data up to represent the whole of GDP. Although the resultant estimates of GDP would be worse than those obtained by direct measurement, they should be more satisfactory than simply making an informal inference from whatever monthly data are available. Our examination of the efficacy of the method for estimation of the state of economic activity indicates a rather satisfactory outcome.