THE PROBABILITY THAT BENEFICIAL MUTATIONS ARE LOST IN POPULATIONS WITH PERIODIC BOTTLENECKS
Article first published online: 9 MAY 2007
Volume 55, Issue 12, pages 2606–2610, December 2001
How to Cite
Wahl, L. M. and Gerrish, P. J. (2001), THE PROBABILITY THAT BENEFICIAL MUTATIONS ARE LOST IN POPULATIONS WITH PERIODIC BOTTLENECKS. Evolution, 55: 2606–2610. doi: 10.1111/j.0014-3820.2001.tb00772.x
- Issue published online: 9 MAY 2007
- Article first published online: 9 MAY 2007
- Received April 13, 2001. Accepted August 27, 2001.
- Experimental evolution;
- extinction probability;
- mathematical model;
- population bottleneck;
- serial passage.
Abstract Population bottlenecks affect the dynamics of evolution, increasing the probability that beneficial mutations will be lost. Recent protocols for the experimental study of evolution involve repeated bottlenecks–when fresh media are inoculated during serial transfer or when chemostat tubes are changed. Unlike population reductions caused by stochastic environmental factors, these bottlenecks occur at known, regular intervals and with a fixed dilution ratio. We derive the ultimate probability of extinction for a beneficial mutation in a periodically bottlenecked population, using both discrete and continuous approaches. We show that both approaches yield the same approximation for extinction probability. From this, we derive an approximate expression for an effective population size.