We would like to thank Bear Braumoeller, Bruce Cain, Michael Caldwell, Lawrence Cho, Christophe Crombez, Susan Jellissen, Masaru Kohno, Jim Kuklinski, Walter Mebane, Peter Nardulli, Brian Sala, Jasjeet Sekhon, Paul Sniderman, three anonymous AJPS reviewers, and reviewers 1–10 at the APSR for helpful comments. Cho also thanks the National Science Foundation (Grant No. SBR–9806448) for research support.
The Limits of Ecological Inference: The Case of Split-Ticket Voting
Article first published online: 12 DEC 2003
American Journal of Political Science
Volume 48, Issue 1, pages 152–171, January 2004
How to Cite
Tam Cho, W. K. and Gaines, B. J. (2004), The Limits of Ecological Inference: The Case of Split-Ticket Voting. American Journal of Political Science, 48: 152–171. doi: 10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00062.x
- Issue published online: 12 DEC 2003
- Article first published online: 12 DEC 2003
We examine the limits of ecological inference methods by focusing on the case of split-ticket voting. Burden and Kimball (1998) report that, by using the King estimation procedure for inferring individual-level behavior from aggregate data, they are the first to produce accurate estimates of split-ticket voting rates in congressional districts. However, a closer examination of their data reveals that a satisfactory analysis of this problem is more complex than may initially appear. We show that the estimation technique is highly suspect in general and especially unhelpful with their particular data.