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Figure S1. Average training AUC values of ecological niche models of 61 African estrildid finch species.

Figure S2. Current richness of African estrildid finches based on summarized models of single-species maps under unlimited and limited dispersal conditions. Threshold used for transformation into presence/absence maps: 10-percentile training presence logistic threshold.

Figure S3. Richness of estrildid finch species under unlimited dispersal assuming CCSM and MIROC conditions. Threshold used for transformation into presence/absence maps: 10-percentile training presence logistic threshold.

Figure S4. Diversity of 24 forest- and woodland-living estrildid finch species and assumed rainforest refugia (Plana 2004) under unlimited and limited dispersal assumptions.

Figure S5. Schoener’s D and Hellinger’s distance I indicating similarity between current and past modelled distribution areas under CCSM conditions. Values range between 0 and 1 (Warren, Glor & Turelli, 2008).

Figure S6. Schoener’s D and Hellinger’s distance I indicating similarity between current and past modelled distribution areas under MIROC conditions. Values range between 0 and 1 (Warren, Glor & Turelli, 2008).

Figure S7. Changes in temperature between current and past climate data. Maps indicate differences in temperature values after subtraction of CCSM and MIROC from current climate data values. Temperate values are given in °C*10. Negative values point to higher temperature values in the past; positive values indicate lower values in the past compared with the present day.

Figure S8. Changes in precipitation between current and past climate data. Maps indicate differences in precipitation values after subtraction of CCSM and MIROC from current climate data values. Precipitation values are given in mm. Negative values point to wetter conditions in the past; positive values indicate drier values in the past compared with the present day.

Figure S9. Contribution of explanatory variables in the models, averaged over all 61 ENMs with ten runs each.

Table S1. List of the estrildid finch species modelled; nomenclature follows Dickinson (2003).

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