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    Yamaguchi N, Mizuno S, Akiba S, Sobue T, Watanabe S. A 50-year projection of lung cancer deaths among Japanese males and potential impact evaluation of anti-smoking measures and screening using a computerized simulation model. Jpn J Cancer Res 1992; 83: 2517.
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    Bray I. Application of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to projecting cancer incidence and mortality. J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat 2002; 51: 15164.
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    Spiegelhalter D, Thomas A, Best N. WinBUGS Version 1.2 User Manual. Cambridge : MRC Biostatistics Unit; 1999.
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    Abe Y, Onodera M, Kamiya K, Saito F, Matsue T. On the revision of the age-adjusted death rate. Kousei no Shihyo 1991; 38: 126.(in Japanese).
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    National Instutute of Population and Social Security Research. Population projections for Japan: 2001–2050. Tokyo : Health and Welfare Statistics Association; 2002.
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    Mizuno S, Akiba S. Smoking and lung cancer mortality in Japanese men: estimates for dose and duration of cigarette smoking based on the Japan vital statistics data. Jpn J Cancer Res 1989; 80: 72731.
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    Soda H, Oka M, Soda M, Nakatomi K, Kawabata S, Suenaga M, Kasai T, Yamada Y, Kamihira S, Kohno S. Birth cohort effects on incidence of lung cancers: a population-based study in Nagasaki, Japan. Jpn J Cancer Res 2000; 91: 9605.
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    Hirayama T. The problem of smoking and lung cancer in Japan with special reference to the rising trend in age-specific mortality rate by number of cigarettes smoked daily. Jpn J Cancer Res 1987; 78: 20310.
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    Doll R, Peto R. The causes of cancer: quantitative estimates of avoidable risks of cancer in the United States today. J Natl Cancer Inst 1981; 66: 1191308.
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    Benhamou E, Benhamou S, Flamant R. Lung cancer and women: results of a French case-control study. Br J Cancer 1987; 55: 915.
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    Hegmann KT, Fraser AM, Keaney RP, Moser SE, Nilasena DS, Sedlars M, Higham-Gren L, Lyon JL. The effect of age at smoking initiation on lung cancer risk. Epidemiology 1993; 4: 4448.
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    Mizuno S, Akiba S. Smoking and lung cancer mortality in Japanese men: estimates for dose and duration of cigarette smoking based on the Japan vital statistics data. Jpn J Cancer Res 1989; 80: 72731.
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    Yamaguchi N, Tamura Y, Sobue T, Akiba S, Ohtaki M, Baba Y, Mizuno S, Watanabe S. Evaluation of cancer prevention strategies by computerized simulation model: methodological issues. Environ Health Perspect 1994; 102: 6771.
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    Sobue T, Yamamoto S, Watanabe S. Smoking and drinking habits among the JPHC study participants at baseline survey. Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study on Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases. J Epidemiol 2001; 11: S4456.
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    Osaki Y, Minowa M, Suzuki K, Wada K. Cigarette smoking among junior and senior high school students in Japan: report of 1996. Kousei no Shihyo 1999; 46: 1622.(in Japanese).
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    Kreuzer M, Kreienbrock L, Gerken M, Heinrich J, Bruske-Hohlfeld I, Muller KM, Wichmann HE. Risk factors for lung cancer in young adults. Am J Epidemiol 1998; 147: 102837.