• Adolescents;
  • alcohol problems;
  • cross-national;
  • ESPAD;
  • heavy episodic drinking;
  • prevention paradox


Aims  According to the prevention paradox, a majority of alcohol-related problems in a population can be attributed to low to moderate drinkers simply because they are more numerous than heavy drinkers, who have a higher individual risk of adverse outcomes. We examined the prevention paradox in annual alcohol consumption, heavy episodic drinking (HED) and alcohol-related problems among adolescents in 23 European countries.

Design and setting  Survey data from the 2007 European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Drugs (ESPAD) among 16-year-old students were analysed.

Participants  A total of 38 370 alcohol-consuming adolescents (19 936 boys and 18 434 girls) from 23 European countries were included.

Measurements  The upper 10% and the bottom 90% of drinkers by annual alcohol intake, with or without HED, and frequency of HED, were compared for the distribution of 10 different alcohol-related problems.

Findings  Although the mean levels of consumption and alcohol-related problems varied largely between genders and countries, in almost all countries the heavy episodic drinkers in the bottom 90% of consumers by volume accounted for most alcohol-related problems, irrespective of severity of problem. However, adolescents with three or more occasions of HED a month accounted for a majority of problems.

Conclusions  The prevention paradox, based on measures of annual consumption and heavy episodic drinking, seems valid for adolescent European boys and girls. However, a minority with frequent heavy episodic drinking accounted for a large proportion of all problems, illustrating limitations of the concept. As heavy episodic drinking is common among adolescents, our results support general prevention initiatives combined with targeted interventions.