The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Findings from the Netherlands SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Model
Article first published online: 26 SEP 2011
© 2011 The Authors, Addiction © 2011 Society for the Study of Addiction
Volume 107, Issue 2, pages 407–416, February 2012
How to Cite
Nagelhout, G. E., Levy, D. T., Blackman, K., Currie, L., Clancy, L. and Willemsen, M. C. (2012), The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Findings from the Netherlands SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Model. Addiction, 107: 407–416. doi: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2011.03642.x
- Issue published online: 17 JAN 2012
- Article first published online: 26 SEP 2011
- Accepted manuscript online: 10 SEP 2011 06:03AM EST
- Submitted 24 June 2011; initial review completed 15 August 2011; final version accepted 5 September 2011
- Prevalence rates;
- public policy;
- simulation model;
- smoking-attributable deaths;
- the Netherlands;
- tobacco control policy
Aim To develop a simulation model projecting the effect of tobacco control policies in the Netherlands on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths.
Design, setting and participants Netherlands SimSmoke—an adapted version of the SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy—uses population, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for the Netherlands to predict the effect of seven types of policies: taxes, smoke-free legislation, mass media, advertising bans, health warnings, cessation treatment and youth access policies.
Measurements Outcome measures were smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths.
Findings With a comprehensive set of policies, as recommended by MPOWER, smoking prevalence can be decreased by as much as 21% in the first year, increasing to a 35% reduction in the next 20 years and almost 40% by 30 years. By 2040, 7706 deaths can be averted in that year alone with the stronger set of policies. Without effective tobacco control policies, almost a million lives will be lost to tobacco-related diseases between 2011 and 2040. Of those, 145 000 can be saved with a comprehensive tobacco control package.
Conclusions Smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in the Netherlands can be reduced substantially through tax increases, smoke-free legislation, high-intensity media campaigns, stronger advertising bans and health warnings, comprehensive cessation treatment and youth access laws. The implementation of these FCTC/MPOWER recommended policies could be expected to show similar or even larger relative reductions in smoking prevalence in other countries which currently have weak policies.