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The impact of small changes in bar closing hours on violence. The Norwegian experience from 18 cities
Article first published online: 29 NOV 2011
DOI: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2011.03643.x
© 2011 The Authors, Addiction © 2011 Society for the Study of Addiction
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How to Cite
Rossow, I. and Norström, T. (2012), The impact of small changes in bar closing hours on violence. The Norwegian experience from 18 cities. Addiction, 107: 530–537. doi: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2011.03643.x
Publication History
- Issue published online: 8 FEB 2012
- Article first published online: 29 NOV 2011
- Accepted manuscript online: 10 SEP 2011 06:03AM EST
- Submitted 15 June 2011; initial review completed 16 August 2011; final version accepted 6 September 2011
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Keywords:
- Alcohol policy;
- closing hours;
- natural experiments;
- Norway;
- time–series analyses;
- violence
ABSTRACT
Aims To estimate the effect on violence of small changes in closing hours for on-premise alcohol sales, and to assess whether a possible effect is symmetrical.
Design, setting, and participants A quasi-experimental design drawing on data from 18 Norwegian cities that have changed (extended or restricted) the closing hours for on-premise alcohol sales. All changes were ≤ 2 hours.
Measurements Closing hours were measured in terms of the latest permitted hour of on-premise trading, ranging from 1 a.m. to 3 a.m. The outcome measure comprised police-reported assaults that occurred in the city centre between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. at weekends. Assaults outside the city centre during the same time window should not be affected by changes in closing hours but function as a proxy for potential confounders, and was thus included as a control variable. The data spanned the period Q1 2000–Q3 2010, yielding 774 observations.
Findings Outcomes from main analyses suggested that each 1-hour extension of closing hours was associated with a statistically significant increase of 4.8 assaults (95% CI 2.60, 6.99) per 100 000 inhabitants per quarter (i.e. an increase of about 16%). Findings indicate that the effect is symmetrical. These findings were consistent across three different modelling techniques.
Conclusion In Norway, each additional 1-hour extension to the opening times of premises selling alcohol is associated with a 16% increase in violent crime.