Time pattern of reduction in risk of oesophageal cancer following alcohol cessation—a meta-analysis
Version of Record online: 28 FEB 2012
© 2011 The Authors, Addiction © 2011 Society for the Study of Addiction
Volume 107, Issue 7, pages 1234–1243, July 2012
How to Cite
Jarl, J. and Gerdtham, U.-G. (2012), Time pattern of reduction in risk of oesophageal cancer following alcohol cessation—a meta-analysis. Addiction, 107: 1234–1243. doi: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2011.03772.x
- Issue online: 6 JUN 2012
- Version of Record online: 28 FEB 2012
- Accepted manuscript online: 16 DEC 2011 09:41AM EST
- Submitted 1 June 2011; initial review completed 2 August 2011; final version accepted 12 December 2011
- Alcohol consumption;
- oesophageal cancer;
- risk decline
Aim To establish the current level of knowledge of the effect of drinking cessation on the risk of developing oesophageal cancer.
Method A meta-analysis was conducted based on relevant studies identified through a systematic literature review. A generalized least squares model for trend estimation of summarized dose–response data were utilized in order to estimate the effect of years since drinking cessation on risk of oesophageal cancer.
Result Seventeen studies that estimate the risk reduction after quantified drinking cessation were identified in the systematic literature review. Nine of these were appropriate for inclusion in the meta-analysis. A large degree of heterogeneity existed between the studies, but this was explainable and the increased risk of oesophageal cancer caused by alcohol consumption was found to be reversible, with a common trend between studies. A required time-period of 16.5 years (95% confidence interval 12.7–23.7) was estimated until no risk from former drinking remained, although this might have been an overestimation due to sample characteristics. The dose–response relationship was found to have an exponential decay. This means that about half the reduction in alcohol-related risk occurred after just a third of the time-period required to eliminate the additional risk.
Conclusion The alcohol-related increased risk of oesophageal cancer is reversible following drinking cessation. It is most likely that about 16 years are required until all elevated risk has disappeared. Due to lack of research and data, more research is urgently required to increase the robustness of the estimates and to approach study limitations.