You have full text access to this OnlineOpen article

Risk factors, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and Model for End-stage Liver Disease scores for predicting short term mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted to intensive care unit

  1. E. CHOLONGITAS1,
  2. M. SENZOLO1,
  3. D. PATCH1,
  4. K. KWONG1,
  5. V. NIKOLOPOULOU1,
  6. G. LEANDRO1,
  7. S. SHAW2,
  8. A. K. BURROUGHS1

Article first published online: 17 MAR 2006

DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2036.2006.02842.x

Issue

Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics

Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics

Volume 23, Issue 7, pages 883–893, April 2006

Additional Information

How to Cite

CHOLONGITAS, E., SENZOLO, M., PATCH, D., KWONG, K., NIKOLOPOULOU, V., LEANDRO, G., SHAW, S. and BURROUGHS, A. K. (2006), Risk factors, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and Model for End-stage Liver Disease scores for predicting short term mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted to intensive care unit. Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics, 23: 883–893. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2036.2006.02842.x

Author Information

  1. 1

    Liver Transplantation and Hepatobiliary Medicine Unit

  2. 2

    Department of Intensive Care, Royal Free Hospital, London, UK

*Professor A. K. Burroughs, Liver Transplantation and Hepatobililary Medicine Unit, Royal Free Hospital, Pond Street, Hampstead, London NW3 2QG, UK. E-mail: andrew.burroughs@royalfree.nhs.uk

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 17 MAR 2006
  2. Article first published online: 17 MAR 2006
  3. Publication data Submitted 25 November 2005 First decision 14 December 2005 Resubmitted 22 December 2005 Accepted 11 January 2005

SEARCH

SEARCH BY CITATION

ARTICLE TOOLS

View Full Article (HTML) Get PDF (288K)

References

  • 1
    D'Amico G, Morabito A, Pagliaro L, Marubini E. Survival and prognostic indicators in compensated and decompensated cirrhosis. Dig Dis Sci 1986; 31: 468–75.
  • 2
    Shellman RG, Fulkerson WJ, DeLong E, Piantadosi CA. Prognosis of patients with cirrhosis and chronic liver disease admitted to the medical intensive care unit. Crit Care Med 1988; 16: 671–8.
  • 3
    Zimmerman JE, Wagner DP, Seneff MG, Becker RB, Sun X, Knaus WA. Intensive care unit admissions with cirrhosis: risk-stratifying patient groups and predicting individual survival. Hepatology 1996; 23: 1393–401.
    Direct Link:
  • 4
    Lee KC, Chiang AA. The outcome of terminal liver cirrhosis patients requiring mechanical ventilation. Zhonghua Yi Xue Za Zhi (Taipei) 1997; 59: 88–94.
  • 5
    Goldfarb G, Nouel O, Poynard T, Rueff B. Efficiency of respiratory assistance in cirrhotic patients with liver failure. Intensive Care Med 1983; 9: 271–3.
  • 6
    Arabi Y, Ahmed QA, Haddad S, Aljumah A, Al Shimemeri A. Outcome predictors of cirrhosis patients admitted to the intensive care unit. Eur J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2004; 16: 333–9.
  • 7
    Tsai MH, Chen YC, Ho YP, et al. Organ system failure scoring system can predict hospital mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients. J Clin Gastroenterol 2003; 37: 251–7.
  • 8
    Child C, Turcotte J. The liver and portal hypertension. In: ChildCI, ed. Surgery and Portal Hypertension. Philadelphia, PA: Saunders, 1964: 50–8.
  • 9
    Pugh RN, Murray-Lyon IM, Dawson JL, Pietroni MC, Williams R. Transection of the oesophagus for bleeding oesophageal varices. Br J Surg 1973; 60: 646–9.
    Direct Link:
  • 10
    Conn HO. A peek at the Child–Turcotte classification. Hepatology 1981; 1: 673–6.
    Direct Link:
  • 11
    Garrison RN, Cryer HM, Howard DA, Polk HC Jr. Clarification of risk factors for abdominal operations in patients with hepatic cirrhosis. Ann Surg 1984; 199: 648–55.
  • 12
    Ferro D, Saliola M, Quintarelli C, et al. 1-year survey of patients with advanced liver cirrhosis. Prognostic value of clinical and laboratory indexes identified by the Cox regression model. Scand J Gastroenterol 1992; 27: 852–6.
  • 13
    van Buuren HR, Cheng KH, Pieterman H, Schalm SW, Lameris JS. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt. Requiem for the surgical portosystemic shunt? Scand J Gastroenterol Suppl 1993; 200: 48–52.
  • 14
    Castera L, Pauwels A, Levy VG. Prognostic indicators in patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to an intensive care unit. Gastroenterol Clin Biol 1996; 20: 263–8.
  • 15
    Wiesner R, Edwards E, Freeman R, et al. Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and allocation of donor livers. Gastroenterology 2003; 124: 91–6.
  • 16
    Kamath PS, Wiesner RH, Malinchoc M, et al. A model to predict survival in patients with end-stage liver disease. Hepatology 2001; 33: 464–70.
    Direct Link:
  • 17
    Knaus WA, Draper EA, Wagner DP, Zimmerman JE. APACHE II: a severity of disease classification system. Crit Care Med 1985; 13: 818–29.
  • 18
    Vincent JL, Moreno R, Takala J, et al. The SOFA (Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment) score to describe organ dysfunction/failure. On behalf of the Working Group on Sepsis-related Problems of the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine. Intensive Care Med 1996; 22: 707–10.
  • 19
    Wehler M, Kokoska J, Reulbach U, Hahn EG, Strauss R. Short-term prognosis in critically ill patients with cirrhosis assessed by prognostic scoring systems. Hepatology 2001; 34: 255–61.
    Direct Link:
  • 20
    Rabe C, Schmitz V, Paashaus M, et al. Does intubation really equal death in cirrhotic patients? Factors influencing outcome in patients with liver cirrhosis requiring mechanical ventilation. Intensive Care Med 2004; 30: 1564–71.
  • 21
    Zauner C, Schneeweiss B, Schneider B, et al. Short-term prognosis in critically ill patients with liver cirrhosis: an evaluation of a new scoring system. Eur J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2000; 12: 517–22.
  • 22
    Aggarwal A, Ong JP, Younossi ZM, Nelson DR, Hoffman-Hogg L, Arroliga AC. Predictors of mortality and resource utilization in cirrhotic patients admitted to the medical ICU. Chest 2001; 119: 1489–97.
  • 23
    Gildea TR, Cook WC, Nelson DR, et al. Predictors of long-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis of the liver admitted to a medical ICU. Chest 2004; 126: 1598–603.
  • 24
    Zauner CA, Apsner RC, Kranz A, et al. Outcome prediction for patients with cirrhosis of the liver in a medical ICU: a comparison of the APACHE scores and liver-specific scoring systems. Intensive Care Med 1996; 22: 559–63.
  • 25
    Moreau R, Sicot C. Evaluation of the short-term prognosis of cirrhotic patients admitted to intensive care, using 4 scoring systems. Gastroenterol Clin Biol 1985; 9: 871–6.
  • 26
    Tsai MH, Peng YS, Lien JM, et al. Multiple organ system failure in critically ill cirrhotic patients. A comparison of two multiple organ dysfunction/failure scoring systems. Digestion 2004; 69: 190–200.
  • 27
    Ho YP, Chen YC, Yang C, et al. Outcome prediction for critically ill cirrhotic patients: a comparison of APACHE II and Child–Pugh scoring systems. J Intensive Care Med 2004; 19: 105–10.
  • 28
    Chen YC, Tsai MH, Ho YP, et al. Comparison of the severity of illness scoring systems for critically ill cirrhotic patients with renal failure. Clin Nephrol 2004; 61: 111–8.
  • 29
    Singh N, Gayowski T, Wagener MM, Marino IR. Outcome of patients with cirrhosis requiring intensive care unit support: prospective assessment of predictors of mortality. J Gastroenterol 1998; 33: 73–9.
  • 30
    Bone RC, Balk RA, Cerra FB, et al. Definitions for sepsis and organ failure and guidelines for the use of innovative therapies in sepsis. The ACCP/SCCM Consensus Conference Committee. American College of Chest Physicians/Society of Critical Care Medicine. Chest 1992; 101: 1644–55.
  • 31
    Hanley JA, McNeil BJ. A method of comparing the areas under receiver operating characteristic curves derived from the same cases. Radiology 1983; 148: 839–43.
  • 32
    Lemeshow S, Hosmer DW Jr. A review of goodness of fit statistics for use in the development of logistic regression models. Am J Epidemiol 1982; 115: 92–106.
  • 33
    Youden WJ. Index for rating diagnostic tests. Cancer 1950; 3: 32–5.
    Direct Link:
  • 34
    Freeman RB, Wiesner RH, Edwards E, Harper A, Merion R, Wolfe R. Results of the first year of the new liver allocation plan. Liver Transpl 2004; 10: 7–15.
    Direct Link:
  • 35
    Foreman MG, Mannino DM, Moss M. Cirrhosis as a risk factor for sepsis and death: analysis of the National Hospital Discharge Survey. Chest 2003; 124: 1016–20.
  • 36
    Cardenas A, Gines P, Uriz J, et al. Renal failure after upper gastrointestinal bleeding in cirrhosis: incidence, clinical course, predictive factors, and short-term prognosis. Hepatology 2001; 34: 671–6.
    Direct Link:
  • 37
    Chen YC, Tsai MH, Hsu CW, et al. Role of serum creatinine and prognostic scoring systems in assessing hospital mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. J Nephrol 2003; 16: 558–65.
  • 38
    Fraley DS, Burr R, Bernardini J, Angus D, Kramer DJ, Johnson JP. Impact of acute renal failure on mortality in end-stage liver disease with or without transplantation. Kidney Int 1998; 54: 518–24.
  • 39
    Almenoff PL, Leavy J, Weil MH, Goldberg NB, Vega D, Rackow EC. Prolongation of the half-life of lactate after maximal exercise in patients with hepatic dysfunction. Crit Care Med 1989; 17: 870–3.
  • 40
    Bernal W, Donaldson N, Wyncoll D, Wendon J. Blood lactate as an early predictor of outcome in paracetamol-induced acute liver failure: a cohort study. Lancet 2002; 359: 558–63.
  • 41
    Macquillan GC, Seyam MS, Nightingale P, Neuberger JM, Murphy N. Blood lactate but not serum phosphate levels can predict patient outcome in fulminant hepatic failure. Liver Transpl 2005; 11: 1073–9.
    Direct Link:
  • 42
    Teres D, Lemeshow S. Why severity models should be used with caution. Crit Care Clin 1994; 10: 93–110.
  • 43
    Cholongitas E, Senzolo M, Triantos C, Samonakis D, Patch D, Burroughs AK. MELD is not enough – enough of MELD? J Hepatol 2005; 42: 475–7.
  • 44
    Papatheodoridis GV, Cholongitas E, Dimitriadou E, Touloumi G, Sevastianos V, Archimandritis AJ. MELD vs Child–Pugh and creatinine-modified Child–Pugh score for predicting survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. World J Gastroenterol 2005; 11: 3099–104.
  • 45
    Carbonell N, Pauwels A, Serfaty L, Fourdan O, Levy VG, Poupon R. Improved survival after variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis over the past two decades. Hepatology 2004; 40: 652–9.
    Direct Link:
  • 46
    Combier E, Levacher S, Letoumelin P, Joseph A, Pourriat JL, de Pouvourville G. Cost-effectiveness analysis of the terlipressin–glycerin trinitrate combination in the pre-hospital management of acute gastro-intestinal haemorrhage in cirrhotic patients. Intensive Care Med 1999; 25: 364–70.
  • 47
    Ball C, Kirkby M, Williams S. Effect of the critical care outreach team on patient survival to discharge from hospital and readmission to critical care: non-randomised population based study. Br Med J 2003; 327: 1014.
View Full Article (HTML) Get PDF (288K)