A Bayesian model for anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus): the combined forcing of man and environment
Article first published online: 28 JAN 2009
© 2009 The Authors.
Volume 18, Issue 1, pages 62–76, January 2009
How to Cite
RUIZ, J., GONZÁLEZ-QUIRÓS, R., PRIETO, L. and NAVARRO, G. (2009), A Bayesian model for anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus): the combined forcing of man and environment. Fisheries Oceanography, 18: 62–76. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2419.2008.00497.x
- Issue published online: 28 JAN 2009
- Article first published online: 28 JAN 2009
- Received 15 April 2008 Revised version accepted 10 November 2008
- anthropogenic forcing;
- Bayesian model;
- environmental forcing;
- Gulf of Cádiz;
- life cycle
Fishery collapses frequently result from combined pressures of the environment and man, which are difficult to discern because of the complexities involved and our limited knowledge. Models to resolve this complexity often become too sophisticated, with too many assumptions and, consequently, with little capacity to predict beyond calibration data. In this paper we implement a different procedure where the model is kept simple and uncertainty accounts for the equation imperfectness to reproduce ecological complexity. Human and environmental forcing on an anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) stock are simulated with only six parameters plus their error terms, and the uncertainty is computed with Bayesian methods. The simple structure is able to reproduce the major dynamical features of this species in the Gulf of Cádiz, including data on life stages and age structure that had no contact with the model. This is a distinct performance for a frugal approach working on a mid-trophic species and a positive instance where parsimony can simulate the interaction of man, fish and the environment, provided uncertainty is accounted for in the process.