Preliminary empirical models of the historical and future impact of acidification on the ecology of Welsh streams


Dr S. J. Ormerod. UWIST. c/o Welsh Water, Penyfai House. Furnace, Llanelli, Dyfed SA15 4EL.


SUMMARY 1. We describe a preliminary approacb to modelling the impact of acidification on the ecology of two Welsb streams. Output from the hydrochemical Model of Acidification of Groundwaters in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to drive empirical models which predicted brown trout Salmo trulta (L.) survival, trout density and invertebrate assemblage type. The models were used for hindcasts between 1844 and 1984 under conifer forest and moorland conditions. Forecasts involved each of these land uses with sulphate deposition either continued at 1984 levels or reduced by 50%.

2. Trout survival times and trout densities in the models declined markedly between 1844 and 1984. The most severe decline occurred under simulated forest, where high aluminium concentration led to the virtual elimination of trout in both streams.

3. In forecasts, only in simulated moorland with sulphate deposition reduced by 50% of 1984 levels, was further decline in trout population retarded. There was no marked recovery in trout density under any of the conditions examined.

4. Invertebrate assemblages in streams during the nineteenth century may have differed from those now existing in nearby moorland streams which are presently circumneutral. Past chemical conditions were unusual (<3mg 1−1 total hardness, but pH >5.7 and low aluminium) by present-day standards, and were outside the range of the invertebrate model until -1940.

5. Between the 1940s and 1984 there was no change in invertebrate fauna under the moorland scenario despite some acidification. However, simulated forest advanced the appearance of the most impoverished assemblage type, which did not recover in spite of reduced deposition.

6. We discuss several uncertainties with the models in their present form, but suggest some methods for their testing and validation.