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Table S1. Models for Daphnia phenological change, using onset-type metrics. Model selection was based upon differences in Akaike’s Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size (ΔAICc) and the Akaike weight (wi). Also shown are the adjusted R2 values (Adj. R2) and the number of parameters in each model, inclusive of the error variance (k). The most parsimonious model is displayed in bold. Where models judged less optimal than the most parsimonious model, by AICc, are nested within the most parsimonious model a likelihood ratio test was performed on the ΔAIC value. This was done to assess the significance of the difference in support for the two models. The P value associated with this test is given only for models nested within the top model (LRT P). DOM = day of maximum, CofG = centre of gravity. + or − is used to indicate the sign of the slope parameter estimated for each relationship.

Table S2. Models for Daphnia phenological change, using peak-type metrics. Model selection was based upon differences in Akaike’s Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size (ΔAICc) and the Akaike weight (wi). Also shown are the adjusted R2 values (Adj. R2) and the number of parameters in each model, inclusive of the error variance (k). The most parsimonious model is displayed in bold. Where models judged less optimal than the most parsimonious model, by AICc, are nested within the most parsimonious model a likelihood ratio test was performed on the ΔAIC value. This was done to assess the significance of the difference in support for the two models. The P value associated with this test is given only for models nested within the top model (LRT P). DOM = day of maximum, CofG = centre of gravity. + or − is used to indicate the sign of the slope parameter estimated for each relationship.

Table S3. Models for Daphnia phenological change, using growing season-type metrics. Model selection was based upon differences in Akaike’s Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size (ΔAICc) and the Akaike weight (wi). Also shown are the adjusted R-squared values (Adj. R2) and the number of parameters in each model, inclusive of the error variance (k). The most parsimonious model is displayed in bold. Where models judged less optimal than the most parsimonious model, by AICc, are nested within the most parsimonious model a likelihood ratio test was performed on the ΔAIC value. This was done to assess the significance of the difference in support for the two models. The P value associated with this test is given only for models nested within the top model (LRT P). DOM = day of maximum, CofG = centre of gravity. + or − is used to indicate the sign of the slope parameter estimated for each relationship. Models for Daphnia phenological change, using growing season-type metrics.

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