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Species abundance dynamics under neutral assumptions: a Bayesian approach to the controversy

  1. Crispin M. Mutshinda1,*,
  2. Robert B. O’Hara1,
  3. Ian P. Woiwod2

Article first published online: 5 NOV 2007

DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2435.2007.01358.x

Issue

Functional Ecology

Functional Ecology

Volume 22, Issue 2, pages 340–347, April 2008

Additional Information

How to Cite

Mutshinda, C. M., O’Hara, R. B. and Woiwod, I. P. (2008), Species abundance dynamics under neutral assumptions: a Bayesian approach to the controversy. Functional Ecology, 22: 340–347. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2435.2007.01358.x

Author Information

  1. 1

    Department of Mathematics and Statistics, PO Box 68 (Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2b), FIN-00014, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; and

  2. 2

    Plant and Invertebrate Ecology Division, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts. AL5 2JQ, UK

* *Correspondence author. E-mail: crispin.mutshindamwanza@helsinki.fi

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 16 NOV 2007
  2. Article first published online: 5 NOV 2007
  3. Received 22 December 2006; accepted 4 October 2007Handling Editor: Peter Mayhew

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Keywords:

  • ecological drift;
  • hierarchical Bayesian framework;
  • stochasticity;
  • zero-sum multinomial

Summary

  • 1
    Hubbell's ‘Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography’ (UNTB) has generated much controversy about both the realism of its assumptions and how well it describes the species abundance dynamics in real communities.
  • 2
    We fit a discrete-time version of Hubbell's neutral model to long-term macro-moth (Lepidoptera) community data from the Rothamsted Insect Survey (RIS) light-traps network in the United Kingdom.
  • 3
    We relax the assumption of constant community size and use a hierarchical Bayesian approach to show that the model does not fit the data well as it would need parameter values that are impossible.
  • 4
    This is because the ecological communities fluctuate more than expected under neutrality.
  • 5
    The model, as presented here, can be extended to include environmental stochasticity, density-dependence, or changes in population sizes that are correlated between different species.
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