Get access

New insights into the application of the Coulomb model in real-time

Authors

  • Flaminia Catalli,

    1. GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 2.6 Seismic Hazard and Stress Field, Potsdam, Germany. E-mail: flaminia.catalli@sed.ethz.ch
    2. Swiss Seismological Service, Institute of Geophysics, ETH, Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Chung-Han Chan

    1. GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 2.6 Seismic Hazard and Stress Field, Potsdam, Germany. E-mail: flaminia.catalli@sed.ethz.ch
    2. Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
    Search for more papers by this author

SUMMARY

The Coulomb model for stress change estimation is considered one of the most powerful physics-based forecasting tools, even though its calculations are affected by uncertainties due to the large number of a priori assumptions needed. The aim of this paper is to suggest a straightforward and reliable strategy to apply the Coulomb model for real-time forecasting. This is done by avoiding all dispensable assumptions, thus reducing the corresponding uncertainties. We demonstrate that the depth at which calculations are made is a parameter of utmost importance and apply the Coulomb model to three sequences in different tectonic regimes: Umbria-Marche (normal), Landers (strike-slip), and Chi–Chi (thrust). In each case the results confirm that when applying the Coulomb model: (i) the depth of calculation plays a fundamental role; (ii) depth uncertainties are not negligible; (iii) the best forecast at a given location is obtained by selecting the maximum stress change over the whole seismogenic depth range.

Ancillary