Impact of climate change on grassland production and soil carbon worldwide

  1. W.J. PARTON*,
  2. J.M.O. SCURLOCK,
  3. D.S. OJIMA,
  4. D.S. SCHIMEL,
  5. D.O. HALL,
  6. SCOPEGRAM GROUP MEMBERS

Article first published online: 27 APR 2006

DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.1995.tb00002.x

Issue

Global Change Biology

Global Change Biology

Volume 1, Issue 1, pages 13–22, February 1995

Additional Information

How to Cite

PARTON, W.J., SCURLOCK, J.M.O., OJIMA, D.S., SCHIMEL, D.S., HALL, D.O. and SCOPEGRAM GROUP MEMBERS (1995), Impact of climate change on grassland production and soil carbon worldwide. Global Change Biology, 1: 13–22. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.1995.tb00002.x

Author Information

  1. The SCOPEGRAM (SCOPE Grasslands Modelling) group is an international team of collaborating scientists from the fields of physiological ecology and biogeochemistry. Collaborating authors are M. B. Coughenour, E. Garcia Moya, T, G. Gilmanov, Apinan Kamnalrut, J. I. Kinyamario, T. Kirchner, T. G. F. Kittel, J-C. Menaut, O. E. Sala, R. J. Scholes, and J. A. van Veen.

* Dr W. J. Parton, Natural Resource Ecology laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA (originator of the CENTURY model). Fax +1 303 491-1965, E-mail billp@poa.nrel.colostate.edu or Prof. D. O. Hali, Division of Life Sciences, King's College London W8 7AH, UK (Coordinator of the SCOPE Grasslands Modelling Group).

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 27 APR 2006
  2. Article first published online: 27 APR 2006
  3. Received 26 June 7994; revision accepted 3 November 1994

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Keywords:

  • Soil organic matter C;
  • climate change;
  • grassland ecosystems

Abstract

The impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 was modelled for 31 temperate and tropical grassland sites, using the CENTURY model. Climate change increased net primary production, except in cold desert steppe regions, and CO2 increased production everywhere. Climate change caused soil carbon to decrease overall, with a loss of 4 Pg from global grasslands after 50 years. Combined climate change and elevated CO2 increased production and reduced global grassland C losses to 2 Pg, with tropical savannas becoming small sinks for soil C. Detection of statistically significant change in plant production would require a 16% change in measured plant production because of high year to year variability in plant production. Most of the predicted changes in plant production are less than 10%.

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