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Appendix S1. Mean and variance of monthly SST and UI values for the current (1980?1999) and future (2080?2099) periods: (a) Current period; observations are observed monthly means for the current period created by method 1; model corrected by observations are corrected monthly RCM outputs for the current period created by method 2. (b) Future period; observations plus anomalies are observed monthly means added to RCM monthly mean anomalies created by method 1; model corrected by observations are corrected monthly RCM outputs for the future period created by method 2. Model denotes the raw RCM outputs for the current and future periods.

Appendix S2. Results of AICc model comparisons for survival models for which ?AICc?2. SST nbd denotes SST during the non-breeding season, UI nbd denotes UI during the non-breeding season, and UI brd denotes UI during the breeding season. In all models, recapture probability is modeled as a function of year and sex: ? (year, sex); k is the number of parameters. For each model, the F statistic and significance level for the anodev tests are reported, as well as the percentage of the variation accounted for by ocean climate covariate(s).

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