gcb2658-sup-0001-TableS1.docxWord document18KTable S1. AIC values for different multi-level model forms. The number of temperature anomalies must be a level-1 variable because it varies at the reef level. In each group of models, we selected the model with the lowest AIC (bold). Models are listed in order of increasing complexity. In cases where the difference between two models was less than 2, which indicates that both models have support in an AIC context (Burnham & Anderson, 2002), we selected the most parsimonious model. Models that did not converge have no AIC value and are indicated with a dash.
gcb2658-sup-0002-TableS2.docxWord document19KTable S2. Multilevel model predictions of the mean annual effect of thermal stress anomalies (TSA) on the change in coral cover at (a) 10%, (b) 20%, (c) 50%, and (d) 80% coral cover and 95% credible intervals.

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