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gcb2683-sup-0001-FigureS1.tifimage/tif4529KFigure S1. Example of current and predicted future species distributions: Palm Cockatoo (Probosciger aterrimus), showing the impact of biogeographic barriers to dispersal, restricting suitable environmental space to a realized geographic distribution.
gcb2683-sup-0002-FigureS2.tifimage/tif372KFigure S2. Change in predicted potential distributional area in km2 between the present and the year 2080 (assuming global warming scenario A1B and constrained dispersal) for nonendemic species. The difference is expressed as a proportion of current distribution, and both positive and negative values are shown right and left of zero on the x axis respectively.
gcb2683-sup-0003-FigureS3.tifimage/tif347KFigure S3. Change in predicted potential distributional area in km2 between the present and the year 2080 (assuming global warming scenario A1B and constrained dispersal) for endemic species. The difference is expressed as a proportion of current distribution, and both positive and negative values are shown right and left of zero on the x axis respectively. The region to which species are endemic is indicated by colour, corresponding to the labels in the inset boxplot. The boxplot shows the distribution of outliers and upper and lower quartiles around the median of the distribution of proportional suitable area change for each regional subgroup.
gcb2683-sup-0004-FigureS4.tifimage/tif2079KFigure S4. Patterns of change in nonendemic species richness across elevation in CYP, AWT and CQC under climate change, showing the effect of unconstrained dispersal on predicted lowland biotic attrition in the AWT and CQC. Species richness layers were summed from binary species distribution models for all nonendemic species in each region, randomly subsampled from a regular grid of points in rainforest. Black points are estimated from current species distributions, orange points are estimated from 2040 predictions and blue points from 2080. The curves are 3rd order quadratic polynomials.
gcb2683-sup-0005-TableS1.docWord document300KTable S1. Sample sizes, Training AUC scores and BIOCLIM variable contributions for MAXENT modeled species. Species with less than 30 occurrence records are indicated in bold text.
gcb2683-sup-0006-TableS2.docWord document370KTable S2. Summary of predicted distributional changes for rainforest bird species in northeastern Australia between the present and 2080. Values are calculated assuming constrained dispersal, so that expansion estimates may be conservative. Species, or those with distinct populations or subspecies predicted to experience a greater than 50% reduction are indicated in red, those predicted to experience a greater than 40% reduction in orange, and a greater than 30% reduction in blue.

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