gcb2744-sup-0001-AppendixS1-S6.pdfapplication/PDF4821KAppendix S1. Discusses the effect of density dependence. Appendix S2. Describes the selection of sea ice variables and details the principal component analysis. Appendix S3. Details vital rates estimation (model selection, estimates and 95% confidence intervals) for: (2.1) breeding success, (2.2) adult survival, and (2.3) probabilities of return to the colony. Appendix S4. Details the effect of sea ice variability on demography. Figures show the distributions of annual SICa, breeding success, and male and female adult survival for females and males, along with the resulting distribution of the deterministic growth rate λ. This deterministic rate can be thought of as approximating the growth of the population between time t and + 1, although this is not always true (see Appendix). Appendix S5. Shows the sea ice projected by each climate model for each season of the penguin's life cycle and the climate selection procedure (Section 'Deterministic population growth'). It also details our novel approach to obtain stochastic sea ice forecasts from single climate output (Section 'Stochastic population growth'). Appendix S6. Describes the projections of vital rates in the future and shows that the range of variation in the forecast vital rates from 2010 to 2100 is plausible.

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