Appendix S2 - Alternate model: details and results.

Appendix S3 - Process variability plots from default model.

Table S2 - 1 Summary of alternate models fit to evaluate the robustness of the key parameters μδ and δj . Note models A - D differ from the default model only in a single parameter, whereas model E is a 1-dimensional analogue of the default model fit only to the latitude observations.

Table S2 - 2 Assessment of μδ sensitivity to alternate model structures, for the three phase732 s of the migratory cycle. Estimates are posterior medians with 95 % credible limits in parentheses. The differences between the models is summarized in Table S2 - 1. Model E, one-dimensional analysis, was not fit to the northern foraging data because there is no north-south bias to movements in this phase.

Fig. S3. Raindrop plots summarizing the 95 % credible intervals of the posterior densities of σdj (process variability) from the default model fit to (a) northern foraging, (b) southward migration, and (c) northward migration phases of the migratory cycle. Note, unlike Figures 3 and 4 the shaded raindrops denote latitude and the empty raindrops denote longitude.

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