Adaptation to the new land or effect of global warming? An age-structured model for rapid voltinism change in an alien lepidopteran pest
Article first published online: 5 FEB 2008
© 2008 The Authors
Journal of Animal Ecology
Volume 77, Issue 3, pages 585–596, May 2008
How to Cite
Yamanaka, T., Tatsuki, S. and Shimada, M. (2008), Adaptation to the new land or effect of global warming? An age-structured model for rapid voltinism change in an alien lepidopteran pest. Journal of Animal Ecology, 77: 585–596. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01367.x
- Issue published online: 27 FEB 2008
- Article first published online: 5 FEB 2008
- Received 3 October 2007; accepted 23 November 2007; Handling Editor: Mike Boots
- global warming;
- heat stress;
- rapid evolution;
- voltinism change
- 1Hyphantria cunea Drury invaded Japan at Tokyo in 1945 and expanded its distribution gradually into northern and south-western Japan. All populations in Japan were bivoltine until the early 1970s, at which time trivoltine populations appeared in several southern regions. Presently, H. cunea exists as separate bivoltine and trivoltine populations divided around latitude 36°. In the course of this voltinism change, the mean surface temperature in Japan rose by 1·0 °C.
- 2To determine whether and how this temperature increase might be responsible for the voltinism change, we constructed an age-structured model incorporating growth speed driven by actual daily temperature and detailed mechanisms of diapause induction triggered by both daily photoperiod and temperature.
- 3The simulation result suggests that both the acceleration of the growth speed and the prolongation of diapause induction are necessary to cause changes in voltinism, regardless of temperature increase. We concluded that the H. cunea population changed its life-history traits as an adaptation parallel with its invasion into the south-western parts of Japan.
- 4Though the temperature increase had little effect on the fitness and heat stress in bivoltine and trivoltine populations, the trivoltine life cycle has become advantageous at least in marginal regions such as Tokyo.