Present address: School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, 1122 NE Boat St, Seattle, WA 98105, USA
1365-2656/asset/olbannerleft.gif?v=1&s=4f0919eca9042f833d018453e8f48b1e3e3123ec)
1365-2656/asset/olbannerright.gif?v=1&s=92164cf20561f2dc5785bff8431569e5b40f87aa)
You have full text access to this OnlineOpen article
Timing is everything: flexible phenology and shifting selection in a colonial seabird
Article first published online: 1 DEC 2008
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01503.x
© 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2008 British Ecological Society
Additional Information
How to Cite
Reed, T. E., Warzybok, P., Wilson, A. J., Bradley, R. W., Wanless, S. and Sydeman, W. J. (2009), Timing is everything: flexible phenology and shifting selection in a colonial seabird. Journal of Animal Ecology, 78: 376–387. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01503.x
- †
Present address: School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, 1122 NE Boat St, Seattle, WA 98105, USA
- ‡
Present address: Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, PO Box 750756, Petaluma, CA 94975, USA
Publication History
- Issue published online: 9 FEB 2009
- Article first published online: 1 DEC 2008
- Received 20 April 2008; accepted 24 October 2008; Handling Editor: Henri Weimerskirch
Keywords:
- behavioural response;
- climate change;
- environmental stochasticity;
- nonlinear reaction norm;
- phenotypic plasticity
Summary
- 1In order to reproduce successfully in a temporally varying environment, iteroparous animals must exhibit considerable behavioural flexibility across their lifetimes. By adjusting timing of breeding each year, parents can ensure optimal overlap between the energy intensive period of offspring production and the seasonal peak in favourable environmental conditions, thereby increasing their chances of successfully rearing young.
- 2Few studies investigate variation among individuals in how they respond to fluctuating conditions, or how selection acts on these individual differences, but this information is essential for understanding how populations will cope with rapid environmental change.
- 3We explored inter-annual trends in breeding time and individual responses to environmental variability in common guillemots Uria aalge, an important marine top predator in the highly variable California Current System. Complex, nonlinear relationships between phenology and oceanic and climate variables were found at the population level. Using a novel application of a statistical technique called random regression, we showed that individual females responded in a nonlinear fashion to environmental variability, and that reaction norm shape differed among females.
- 4The pattern and strength of selection varied substantially over a 34-year period, but in general, earlier laying was favoured. Females deviating significantly from the population mean laying date each year also suffered reduced breeding success, with the strength of nonlinear selection varying in relation to environmental conditions.
- 5We discuss our results in the wider context of an emerging literature on the evolutionary ecology of individual-level plasticity in the wild. Better understanding of how species-specific factors and local habitat features affect the timing and success of breeding will improve our ability to predict how populations will respond to climate change.