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Appendix S1. Details and justification for HGLMs.

Fig. S1. Schematic of experimental design.

Fig. S2. Hazard functions for probabilities of tree establishment, 2004–2006.

Table S1. Pairwise comparisons for seed production between herbivore treatment × year combinations.

Table S2. Results for selection of Poisson regression models for the number of seedlings germinating using subplot-level predictors, used to formulate hierarchical generalized linear models.

Table S3. Coefficient estimates for hierarchical generalized linear models (HGLM) fit to seedling production in 3 years.

Table S4. Results for selection of Cox proportional hazards models for seedling survival using subplot-level predictors, used to formulate frailty models.

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