Cohort variation, climate effects and population dynamics in a short-lived lizard

Authors

  • Jean François Le Galliard,

    Corresponding author
    1. CNRS/ENS/UPMC UMR 7625, Laboratoire Ecologie et Evolution, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 7 Quai St. Bernard, 75005, Paris, France
    2. CNRS/ENS UMS 3194, CEREEP – Ecotron IleDeFrance, École Normale Supérieure, 78 rue du Château, 77140 St-Pierre-lès-Nemours, France
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  • Olivier Marquis,

    1. CNRS/ENS/UPMC UMR 7625, Laboratoire Ecologie et Evolution, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 7 Quai St. Bernard, 75005, Paris, France
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  • Manuel Massot

    1. CNRS/ENS/UPMC UMR 7625, Laboratoire Ecologie et Evolution, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 7 Quai St. Bernard, 75005, Paris, France
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Correspondence author. E-mail: galliard@biologie.ens.fr

Summary

1. Demographic theory and empirical studies indicate that cohort variation in demographic traits has substantial effects on population dynamics of long-lived vertebrates but cohort effects have been poorly investigated in short-lived species.

2. Cohort effects were quantified in the common lizard (Zootoca vivipara Jacquin 1787), a short-lived ectothermic vertebrate, for body size, reproductive traits and age-specific survival with mark–recapture data collected from 1989 to 2005 in two wetlands. We assessed cohort variation and covariation in demographic traits, tested the immediate and delayed effects of climate conditions (temperature and rainfall), and predicted consequences for population growth.

3. Most demographic traits exhibited cohort variation, but this variation was stronger for juvenile growth and survival, sub-adult survival and breeding phenology than for other traits.

4. Cohort variation was partly explained by a web of immediate and delayed effects of climate conditions. Rainfall and temperature influenced distinct life-history traits and the periods of gestation and early juvenile life were critical stages for climate effects.

5. Cohort covariation between demographic traits was usually weak, apart from a negative correlation between juvenile and sub-adult body growth suggesting compensatory responses. An age-structured population model shows that cohort variation influences population growth mainly through direct numerical effects of survival variation early in life.

6. An understanding of cohort effects is necessary to predict critical life stages and climatic determinants of population dynamics, and therefore demographic responses to future climate warming.

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