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Fig. S1. Life cycle graph for the age- and breeding-state-based, post-breeding matrix model of female Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica.

Fig. S2. Annual estimates of apparent survival rate for animals in different breeding states and age classes (pups, yearlings, pre-breeders ≥2 years old, mothers, and skip breeders) for 1980–2006 produced by maximum likelihood (MLE, gray points with 95% confidence intervals as gray error bars) or Bayesian hierarchical modelling (MCMC, black points with 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles of posterior distribution as black error bars).

Fig. S3. Estimated breeding probabilities for female Weddell seals ≥5 years old during 1985–2008 that were produced by maximum likelihood (MLE, gray points with 95% confidence intervals as gray error bars) or Bayesian hierarchical modelling (MCMC, black points with 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles of posterior distribution as black error bars).

Fig. S4. Posterior densities of apparent survival rates and breeding probabilities for an-as-yet unsampled year for female Weddell seals in different combinations of age class and breeding state based on data from 1979 to 2008 from Erebus Bay, Antarctica.

Table S1. Model-selection results for competing multi-state mark–recapture models for state- and year-dependent apparent survival rates (φ), breeding probabilities (ψ), and detection rates (p) for female Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica, 1979–2008. AICc, ΔAICc (difference in AICc value between the top model and each subsequent model), wi (weight of evidence in favor of each model i), k (number of estimated parameters), and deviance are shown for each of the models evaluated.

Table S2. Coefficients estimated with modelling mark–recapture modelling of age-class-, state- and year-dependent apparent survival rates (φ), breeding probabilities (ψ), and detection rates (p) for female Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica, 1979–2008.

Table S3. Posterior means and standard deviations from Bayesian hierarchical modelling of coefficients relating apparent survival and transition probabilities to pup-producing breeding state for female Weddell seals by age and breeding state in 1980–2008.

Table S4. Features of the posterior distribution of apparent survival rates (φ) and breeding probabilities (ψrsageclass) in an as-yet-unsampled year for female Weddell seals in different age classes and breeding states.

Appendix S1. Details of modelling capture-recapture analyses of apparent survival rate and breeding probabilities for Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica using data from 1979 to 2008.

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