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The untamed shrew: on the termination of an eradication programme for an introduced species

  1. Andrew Solow1,*,
  2. Adrian Seymour2,
  3. Andrew Beet1,
  4. Stephen Harris2

Article first published online: 22 JAN 2008

DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2007.01446.x

Issue

Journal of Applied Ecology

Journal of Applied Ecology

Volume 45, Issue 2, pages 424–427, April 2008

Additional Information

How to Cite

Solow, A., Seymour, A., Beet, A. and Harris, S. (2008), The untamed shrew: on the termination of an eradication programme for an introduced species. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45: 424–427. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2007.01446.x

Author Information

  1. 1

    Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA; and

  2. 2

    School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Woodland Road, Bristol BS8 1UG, UK

* *Correspondence author. E-mail: asolow@whoi.edu

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 22 JAN 2008
  2. Article first published online: 22 JAN 2008
  3. Received 25 April 2007; accepted 9 November 2007Handling Editor: Jonathan Rhodes

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Keywords:

  • Asian musk shrew;
  • Bayesian statistics;
  • eradication;
  • generalized Pareto distribution;
  • introduced species;
  • management;
  • Mauritius

Summary

  • 1
     One option in managing introductions of non-native pest species is to eradicate the introduced species by trapping or otherwise removing individuals. A central issue in undertaking such a programme is deciding when it is reasonable to terminate the programme because all individuals have been removed. This decision requires knowledge of the probability that complete eradication has been achieved.
  • 2
     An objective Bayesian method is presented to determine the probability that all individuals of an introduced species have been removed. The method is based on the excess trapping times of individuals beyond a specified threshold, assuming a generalized Pareto distribution for excess trapping time.
  • 3
     The method is applied to data from an unsuccessful trapping programme of the Asian musk shrew Suncus murinus on the Mauritian island of Ile aux Aigrettes. The results suggest that, had the method been used, managers would have realized that the probability of complete eradication was not high and premature termination could have been avoided.
  • 4
    Synthesis and applications. A central issue facing the manager of an eradication programme for an introduced or pest species is deciding when it is reasonable to terminate the programme because all individuals have been removed. If termination is premature, the programme will fail; if termination is delayed beyond the point of eradication, unnecessary costs will be incurred. The statistical method described here for calculating the probability of complete eradication based on the record of removals provides information that is useful either in an informal assessment of progress or in more formal decision making regarding termination.
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