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Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning

  1. William J. Sutherland1,*,
  2. Mark J. Bailey2,
  3. Ian P. Bainbridge3,
  4. Tom Brereton4,
  5. Jaimie T. A. Dick5,
  6. Joanna Drewitt3,
  7. Nicholas K. Dulvy6,
  8. Nicholas R. Dusic7,
  9. Robert P. Freckleton8,
  10. Kevin J. Gaston8,
  11. Pam M. Gilder9,
  12. Rhys E. Green1,10,
  13. A. Louise Heathwaite11,
  14. Sally M. Johnson12,
  15. David W. Macdonald13,
  16. Roger Mitchell14,
  17. Daniel Osborn15,
  18. Roger P. Owen16,
  19. Jules Pretty17,
  20. Stephanie V. Prior1,
  21. Havard Prosser18,
  22. Andrew S. Pullin19,
  23. Paul Rose20,
  24. Andrew Stott21,
  25. Tom Tew22,
  26. Chris D. Thomas23,
  27. Des B. A. Thompson12,
  28. Juliet A. Vickery24,
  29. Matt Walker25,
  30. Clive Walmsley26,
  31. Stuart Warrington27,
  32. Andrew R. Watkinson28,
  33. Rich J. Williams29,
  34. Rosie Woodroffe30,
  35. Harry J. Woodroof31

Article first published online: 20 MAR 2008

DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01474.x

Issue

Journal of Applied Ecology

Journal of Applied Ecology

Volume 45, Issue 3, pages 821–833, June 2008

Additional Information

How to Cite

Sutherland, W. J., Bailey, M. J., Bainbridge, I. P., Brereton, T., Dick, J. T. A., Drewitt, J., Dulvy, N. K., Dusic, N. R., Freckleton, R. P., Gaston, K. J., Gilder, P. M., Green, R. E., Heathwaite, A. L., Johnson, S. M., Macdonald, D. W., Mitchell, R., Osborn, D., Owen, R. P., Pretty, J., Prior, S. V., Prosser, H., Pullin, A. S., Rose, P., Stott, A., Tew, T., Thomas, C. D., Thompson, D. B. A., Vickery, J. A., Walker, M., Walmsley, C., Warrington, S., Watkinson, A. R., Williams, R. J., Woodroffe, R. and Woodroof, H. J. (2008), Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45: 821–833. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01474.x

Author Information

  1. 1

    Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK;

  2. 2

    Natural Environment Research Council, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, CEH-Oxford, Mansfield Road, Oxford, OX1 3SR, UK;

  3. 3

    Rural and Environment Research and Analysis Directorate, The Scottish Government, Victoria Quay, Edinburgh, EH6 6QQ,UK;

  4. 4

    Butterfly Conservation, Manor Yard, East Lulworth, Wareham, Dorset, BH20 5QP, UK;

  5. 5

    School of Biological Sciences, Medical and Biological Centre, Queen's University Belfast, 97 Lisburn Road, Belfast, BT9 7BL, N. Ireland, UK;

  6. 6

    Centre for Environment, Fisheries & Aquaculture Sciences, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk, NR33 OHT,UK;

  7. 7

    British Ecological Society, 26 Blades Court, Deodar Road, London, SW15 2NU, UK;

  8. 8

    Department of Animal & Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN,UK;

  9. 9

    Environment Agency, Rio House, Aztec West, Bristol, BS32 4UD, UK;

  10. 10

    Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, SG19 2 DL,UK;

  11. 11

    Centre for Sustainable Water Management, The Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ,UK;

  12. 12

    Scottish Natural Heritage, Silvan House, 3rd Floor East, 231 Costorphine Road, Edinburgh EH12 7AT, UK;

  13. 13

    Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, University of Oxford, Department of Zoology, Tubney House, Abingdon Road, Tubney, Abingdon, OX13 5QL,UK;

  14. 14

    Arcadia, 192 Sloane Street, London, SW1X 9QX, UK;

  15. 15

    Science to Policy and Public Sector Liaison, Natural Environment Research Council, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon, SN2 1EU, UK;

  16. 16

    Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Greyhope House, Greyhope Road, Torry, Aberdeen, AB11 9RD,UK;

  17. 17

    Department of Biological Sciences, University of Essex, Colchester, CO4 3SQ, UK;

  18. 18

    Welsh Assembly Government, Cathays Park, Cardiff, CF10 3NQ, UK;

  19. 19

    Centre for Evidence-Based Conservation, School of Environment and Natural Resources, Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2UW, UK;

  20. 20

    JNCC, Monkstone House, City Road, Peterborough, PE1 1JY, UK;

  21. 21

    Natural Environment Science Division, Defra, 1/05 Temple Quay House, Bristol, BS1 6EB,UK;

  22. 22

    Natural England, Northminster House, Peterborough, PE1 1UA, UK;

  23. 23

    Department of Biology (Area 18), University of York, PO Box 373, York, YO10 5YW, UK;

  24. 24

    British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, IP24 2 PU, UK;

  25. 25

    New Scientist, Lacon House, 84 Theobald's Road, London, WC1X 8NS, UK;

  26. 26

    Countryside Council for Wales, Maes y Ffynnon, Penrhosgarnedd, Bangor, LL57 2DW, UK;

  27. 27

    The National Trust, East of England Regional Office, Westley Bottom, Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk IP33 3WD, UK;

  28. 28

    Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK;

  29. 29

    Microsoft Research Ltd, 7 J. J. Thomson Ave, Cambridge, CB3 0FB, UK;

  30. 30

    Institute of Zoology, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4RY;

  31. 31

    Horizon Scanning Centre, Government Office for Science, Bay 535, Kingsgate House, 66–74 Victoria Street, London, SW1E 6SW, UK

* Correspondence author. E-mail: w.sutherland@zoo.cam.ac.uk

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 20 MAR 2008
  2. Article first published online: 20 MAR 2008
  3. Received 13 October 2007; accepted 21 February 2008Handling Editor: Paul Thompson

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Keywords:

  • conservation;
  • conservation policy;
  • decision making;
  • environmental risk;
  • nanotechnology

Summary

  • 1
    Horizon scanning is an essential tool for environmental scientists if they are to contribute to the evidence base for Government, its agencies and other decision makers to devise and implement environmental policies. The implication of not foreseeing issues that are foreseeable is illustrated by the contentious responses to genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops in the UK, and by challenges surrounding biofuels, foot and mouth disease, avian influenza and climate change.
  • 2
    A total of 35 representatives from organizations involved in environmental policy, academia, scientific journalism and horizon scanning were asked to use wide consultation to identify the future novel or step changes in threats to, and opportunities for, biodiversity that might arise in the UK up to 2050, but that had not been important in the recent past. At least 452 people were consulted.
  • 3
    Cases for 195 submitted issues were distributed to all participants for comments and additions. All issues were scored (probability, hazard, novelty and overall score) prior to a 2-day workshop. Shortlisting to 41 issues and then the final 25 issues, together with refinement of these issues, took place at the workshop during another two rounds of discussion and scoring.
  • 4
    We provide summaries of the 25 shortlisted issues and outline the research needs.
  • 5
    We suggest that horizon scanning incorporating wide consultation with providers and users of environmental science is used by environmental policy makers and researchers. This can be used to identify gaps in knowledge and policy, and to identify future key issues for biodiversity, including those arising from outside the domains of ecology and biodiversity.
  • 6
    Synthesis and applications. Horizon scanning can be used by environmental policy makers and researchers to identify gaps in knowledge and policy. Drawing on the experience, expertise and research of policy advisors, academics and journalists, this exercise helps set the agenda for policy, practice and research.
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