Prioritising conservation areas using species surrogate measures: consistent with ecological theory?


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1. Surrogate species measures of biodiversity (SSB) are used worldwide in conservation prioritisations. We address the important question whether the ideas behind SSB are consistent with current knowledge on distribution patterns of species, as reflected in theories of community assembly.

2. We investigated whether assumptions necessary for successful functioning of SSB (nested species assemblages, cross-taxon congruence, spatio-temporal consistency) were supported by predictions from either niche or neutral community models.

3. We found a general mismatch between ideas behind SSB and ecological community theory, except that SSB based on complementarity may be consistent with niche-based theory when gradients in species composition are strong.

4.Synthesis and applications. The lack of a necessary scientific foundation may explain the disappointing results of empirical tests of SSB. We argue that site selection should be based on costs and opportunities within complementary environmental/land units, rather than expensive inventories of unfounded surrogate species.