Are Antarctic minke whales unusually abundant because of 20th century whaling?
Article first published online: 17 DEC 2009
Published 2009. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA
Volume 19, Issue 2, pages 281–291, January 2010
How to Cite
RUEGG, K. C., ANDERSON, E. C., SCOTT BAKER, C., VANT, M., JACKSON, J. A. and PALUMBI, S. R. (2010), Are Antarctic minke whales unusually abundant because of 20th century whaling?. Molecular Ecology, 19: 281–291. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-294X.2009.04447.x
- Issue published online: 11 JAN 2010
- Article first published online: 17 DEC 2009
- Received 15 July 2009; revision received 21 October 2009; accepted 29 October 2009
- Antarctic marine ecosystem;
- Antarctic minke whale;
- coalescent modelling;
- competitive release;
- effective population size;
- krill surplus hypothesis
Severe declines in megafauna worldwide illuminate the role of top predators in ecosystem structure. In the Antarctic, the Krill Surplus Hypothesis posits that the killing of more than 2 million large whales led to competitive release for smaller krill-eating species like the Antarctic minke whale. If true, the current size of the Antarctic minke whale population may be unusually high as an indirect result of whaling. Here, we estimate the long-term population size of the Antarctic minke whale prior to whaling by sequencing 11 nuclear genetic markers from 52 modern samples purchased in Japanese meat markets. We use coalescent simulations to explore the potential influence of population substructure and find that even though our samples are drawn from a limited geographic area, our estimate reflects ocean-wide genetic diversity. Using Bayesian estimates of the mutation rate and coalescent-based analyses of genetic diversity across loci, we calculate the long-term population size of the Antarctic minke whale to be 670 000 individuals (95% confidence interval: 374 000–1 150 000). Our estimate of long-term abundance is similar to, or greater than, contemporary abundance estimates, suggesting that managing Antarctic ecosystems under the assumption that Antarctic minke whales are unusually abundant is not warranted.