Gordon DE, Ghazaryan LR, Maslak J, Anderson BJ, Brousseau KS, Carrascal AF, Smith LC. Projections of diagnosed HIV infection in children and adolescents in New York State. Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology 2012; 26: 131–139.
Decreasing mother-to-child transmission is changing the population of children and adolescents with HIV. This project used recent epidemiological data to develop short-term projections of children and adolescents living with diagnosed HIV infection in New York State. A population simulation model was created to project prevalence of diagnosed HIV cases aged 0–19 years by age, sex, race/ethnicity and risk for years 2007–2014. Using 2006 data as the baseline population and 2001–2006 diagnosis and death data, annual diagnoses and deaths were calculated for each age/sex/race/risk category and known cases were ‘aged’ into the next year. The model produced annual estimates until 2014. The model predicts a decline in the number of persons aged 0–19 years living with diagnosed HIV in New York from 2810 in 2006 to 1431 in 2014, a net decrease of 49%. Living cases with paediatric risk continue to decrease. Cases aged 13–19 with non-paediatric risk increase slowly, leading to a shift in the risk composition of the population. The dominant effect seen in the model is the ageing out of perinatally infected children born before measures to prevent mother-to-child transmission were broadly implemented in the mid- to late 1990s. Changing trends in the young HIV-infected population should be considered in developing public health programmes for HIV prevention and care in New York State for the coming years.