Sudden oak death: geographic risk estimates and predictions of origins

Authors

  • D. A. Kluza,

    Corresponding author
    1. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, 8623-N, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue Northwest, Washington, DC 20460; and
      *E-mail: daniel.kluza@maf.govt.nz
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    • Present address: Biosecurity New Zealand, MAF, PO Box 2526, Wellington, New Zealand

  • D. A. Vieglais,

    1. Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA
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  • J. K. Andreasen,

    1. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, 8623-N, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue Northwest, Washington, DC 20460; and
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  • A. T. Peterson

    1. Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA
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*E-mail: daniel.kluza@maf.govt.nz

Abstract

Ecological niche modelling techniques were applied to address the questions of the origins and potential geographic extent of sudden oak death, caused by the pathogen Phytophthora ramorum. Based on an ecological niche model derived from the phytopathogen's California distribution and distributions of potential host species, it was determined that the disease has high potential to colonize the southeastern United States, and that its likely source area is eastern Asia.

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