Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe

Authors

  • Wilfried Thuiller,

    Corresponding author
    1. Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, Centre National de Recherche Scientifique, 1919 route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier cedex 5, France;
    2. Climate Change Research Group, Kirstenbosch Research Center, South African National Biodiversity Institute, P/Bag × 7, Claremont 7735, Cape Town, South Africa;
    3. Macroecology and Conservation Unit, University of Évora, Estrada dos Leões, 7000–730 Évora, Portugal;
    4. Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, CNRS, Université J. Fournier, BP 53X, 38041 Grenoble cedex 9, France;
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  • Sandra Lavorel,

    1. Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, Centre National de Recherche Scientifique, 1919 route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier cedex 5, France;
    2. Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, CNRS, Université J. Fournier, BP 53X, 38041 Grenoble cedex 9, France;
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  • Martin T. Sykes,

    1. Geobiosphere Science Centre, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden;
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  • Miguel B. Araújo

    1. Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, Centre National de Recherche Scientifique, 1919 route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier cedex 5, France;
    2. Macroecology and Conservation Unit, University of Évora, Estrada dos Leões, 7000–730 Évora, Portugal;
    3. Biodiversity Research Group, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University, Mansfield Road, Oxford, OX1 3TB, UK; and
    4. Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, C/Gutiérrez Abascal, 2, 28006, Madrid, Spain
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*Corresponding author. Wilfried Thuiller, Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, CNRS, Université J. Fournier, BP 53X, 38041 Grenoble cedex 9, France. E-mail: thuiller@sanbi.org

ABSTRACT

Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions of 122 tree species from different functional types (FT). We then explored projections of future distributions under one climate scenario for 2080, considering two alternative dispersal assumptions: no dispersal and unlimited dispersal. The species-rich broadleaved deciduous group appeared to play a key role in the future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose both species richness and functional diversity due to the loss of broadleaved deciduous trees. These were projected to migrate to boreal forests, thereby increasing their species richness and functional diversity. Atlantic areas provided an intermediate case, with a predicted reduction in the numbers of species and occasional predicted gains in functional diversity. This resulted from a loss in species within the broadleaved deciduous FT, but overall maintenance of the group. Our results illustrate the fact that both species-specific predictions and functional patterns should be examined separately in order to assess the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and gain insights into future ecosystem functioning.

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