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Keywords:

  • prediction;
  • stagnation;
  • type 1 diabetes incidence

Aims

The aim was to assess trends in incidence of pediatric type 1 diabetes (T1D) using data recorded by the population-based Czech Childhood Diabetes Register over 1989–2009.

Methods

New cases of childhood-onset T1D aged 0–14.9 yr were recorded using the EURODIAB protocol by two independent sources with the combined estimated completeness of 98.6%. The incidence was modeled by Poisson regression, and the effects of age and calendar time on incidence were assessed using piecewise linear functions.

Results

A total of 5155 cases was ascertained over 1989–2009 from an average pediatric population of 1.76 million. Two points of change in the incidence trend were identified by the modeling: in 1995 the incidence accelerated, while in 2001 the growth in incidence significantly slowed down in all ages up to 10 yr. In the youngest age category, 0–4 yr at onset, the rapid average annual rise of 15% over 1996–2001 suddenly changed into stagnation over 2002–2009.

Conclusions

Our data contribute to the notion that long- and intermediate-term predictions from the past incidence developments of incidence are difficult, as abrupt changes in the trend can occur. Caution should be exercised against too far-reaching incidence predictions, even if the population has experienced a previous history of a very fast rise in T1D incidence.