Applicability of MELD as a short-term prognostic indicator in patients with chronic liver disease: An Indian experience


Dr Nutan Desai, Department of Gastroenterology, First Floor, Lokmanya Tilak Municipal Medical College, Sion, Mumbai 400022, India. Email:


Background:  The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), which employs objective variables, statistical weighting and a continuous scale, has replaced the Child–Turcotte–Pugh (CTP) classification as the scoring system of choice in several liver transplant centers. However, the predictive ability of MELD has never been prospectively evaluated in India. The aim of this study was to examine the MELD score, the CTP score and the recently proposed modified CTP score in Indian patients with liver cirrhosis to determine their correlation and compare their prognostic significance for short-term survival.

Methods:  A total of 76 patients with cirrhosis (mean age 46.97 years) were prospectively evaluated and followed up for 6 months. MELD score, CTP score and modified CTP score were calculated at baseline. The correlation between variables was evaluated by Pearson's correlation test. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the cutoff values for each score with the best sensitivity and specificity in discriminating between patients who survived and those who died.

Results:  Alcoholic liver disease was the most common (50%) etiology of cirrhosis. MELD score and CTP score showed very good correlation (Pearson correlation r = 0.983). ROC curve showed area under curve (c-statistics) for MELD score, CTP score and modified CTP score as 0.764, 0.804 and 0.817, respectively.

Conclusion:  The MELD score was not found to be superior to CTP score and modified CTP score for short-term prognostication of patients with cirrhosis in this study.