Aanes R., Sæther B.-E., Smith F.M., Cooper E.J., Wookey P.A. & Øritsland, N.A. (2002). The Arctic Oscillation predicts effects of climate change in two trophic levels in a high-arctic ecosystem. Ecology Letters, 5, 445–453.
Due to an error in the written syntax when specifying the autoregressive model, the coefficients presented in Table 1 of Aanes et al. (2002) are erroneous. We have recalculated the coefficients using the r software (R-Development Core Team 2004). The true coefficients are given in Table 1 (Corrected), below.
|Dependent variable||Climate variable||N||AR(1)-coeff.||Clim.-coeff.||AICc||AR(2)-coeff.||Clim.-coeff.||AICc|
|β 1 †||α 1 §||β 1 †||β 2 ‡||α 1 §|
|(a) Including 1993|
|(b) Excluding 1993|
The error did not alter the major conclusion of the paper. Our reanalysis is consistent with the original paper showing that the most parsimonious model for the complete period (1978–1998) was a 1-order model including winter climate (AOW). The only discrepancy was that the lagged effect of climate during winter (AOW) disappeared when excluding the extreme year 1993. The reanalysis then suggests that a 1-order model including the AO during the snowfree months (AOS) is the most parsimonious model.