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LETTER
Minimum viable population sizes and global extinction risk are unrelated
Article first published online: 16 FEB 2006
DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2006.00883.x
© 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS
Additional Information
How to Cite
Brook, B. W., Traill, L. W. and Bradshaw, C. J. A. (2006), Minimum viable population sizes and global extinction risk are unrelated. Ecology Letters, 9: 375–382. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2006.00883.x
Publication History
- Issue published online: 31 MAR 2006
- Article first published online: 16 FEB 2006
- Editor, Mark Schwartz Manuscript received 28 September 2005 First decision made 4 November 2005 Manuscript accepted 13 December 2005
Keywords:
- Density dependence;
- extinction correlates;
- generalized linear mixed models;
- minimum viable population size;
- model-averaging;
- population variability
Abstract
Theoretical and empirical work has shown that once reduced in size and geographical range, species face a considerably elevated risk of extinction. We predict minimum viable population sizes (MVP) for 1198 species based on long-term time-series data and model-averaged population dynamics simulations. The median MVP estimate was 1377 individuals (90% probability of persistence over 100 years) but the overall distribution was wide and strongly positively skewed. Factors commonly cited as correlating with extinction risk failed to predict MVP but were able to predict successfully the probability of World Conservation Union Listing. MVPs were most strongly related to local environmental variation rather than a species’ intrinsic ecological and life history attributes. Further, the large variation in MVP across species is unrelated to (or at least dwarfed by) the anthropogenic threats that drive the global biodiversity crisis by causing once-abundant species to decline.