SEARCH

SEARCH BY CITATION

References

  • Akçakaya, H.R., Halley, J.M. & Inchausti, P. (2003) Population-level mechanisms for reddened spectra in ecological time series. J. Anim. Ecol., 72, 698702.
  • Beissinger, S.R. & McCullough, D.R. (2002) Population Viability Analysis. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
  • Beissinger, S.R. & Westphal, M.I. (1998) On the use of demographic models of population viability in endangered species management. J. Wildl. Manage., 62, 821841.
  • Den Boer, P.J. (1991) Seeing the trees for the wood: random walks or bounded fluctuations of population size? Oecologia, 86, 484491.
  • Den Boer, P.J. & Reddingius, J. (1989) On the stabilization of animal numbers. Problems of testing. 2. Confrontation with data from the field. Oecologia, 79, 484491.
  • Boyce, M.S. (1992) Population viability analysis. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst., 23, 481506.
  • Brook, B.W., O'Grady, J.J., Chapman, A.P., Burgman, M.A., Akçakaya, H.R. & Frankham, R. (2000) Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology. Nature, 404, 385387.
  • Caswell, H. (2000) Matrix Population Models: Construction, Analysis, and Interpretation. Sinauer, Sunderland, MA, USA.
  • Cohen, J. (1977) Ergodicity of age structure in populations with Markovian vital rates, III: finite-state moments and growth rate; an illustration. Adv. Appl. Prob., 9, 462475.
  • Coulson, T., Mace, G.M., Hudson, E. & Possingham, H. (2001) The use and abuse of population viability analysis. Trends Ecol. Evol., 16, 219221.
  • Crouse, D.T., Crowder, L.B. & Caswell, H. (1987) A stage-based population-model for Loggerhead sea-turtles and implications for conservation. Ecology, 68, 14121423.
  • DeMaster, D., Angliss, R., Cochrane, J., Mace, P., Merrick, R., Miller, M. et al. (2004) Recommendations to NOAA Fisheries: ESA Listing Criteria by the Quantitative Working Group 10 June 2004. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS-F/SPO-67, Washington DC, 85 pp.
  • Dennis, B. & Costantino, R.F. (1988) Analysis of steady-state populations with the gamma abundance model: application to Tribolium. Ecology, 69, 12001213.
  • Dennis, B. & Otten, M.R.M. (2000) Joint effects of density dependence and rainfall on abundance of San Joaquin Kit Fox. J. Wildl. Manage., 64, 388400.
  • Dennis, B. & Taper, M.L. (1994) Density dependence in time series observations of natural populations: estimation and testing. Ecol. Monogr., 64, 205224.
  • Dennis, B., Ponciano, J.M., Lele, S.R., Taper, M.L. & Staples, D.F. (2006) Estimating density dependence, process noise, and observation error. Ecol. Monogr., 76, 323341.
  • Diserud, O.H. & Engen, S. (2000) A general and dynamic species abundance model, embracing the lognormal and the gamma models. Am. Nat., 155, 498511.
  • Doak, D., Kareiva, P. & Kleptetka, B. (1994) Modeling population viability for the desert tortoise in the Western Mojave desert. Ecol. Appl., 4, 446460.
  • Dorazio, R.M. & Johnson, F.A. (2003) Bayesian inference and decision theory – a framework for decision making in natural resource management. Ecol. Appl., 13, 556563.
  • Drechsler, M. & Burgman, M.A. (2004) Combining population viability analysis with decision analysis. Biodivers. Conserv., 13, 115139.
  • Ellner, S.P., Fieberg, J., Ludwig, D. & Wilcox, C. (2002) Precision of population viability analysis. Conserv. Biol., 16, 258261.
  • Engen, S., Sæther, B.-E. & Møller, A.P. (2001) Stochastic population dynamics and time to extinction of a declining population of barn swallows. J. Anim. Ecol., 70, 789797.
  • Engen, S., Lande, R. & Sæther, B.-E. (2003) Demographic stochasticity and allee effects in populations’ with two sexes. Ecology, 84, 23782386.
  • Engen, S., Lande, R., Sæther, B.-E. & Weimerskirch, H. (2005) Extinction in relation to demographic and environmental stochasticity in age-structured models. Math. Biosci., 195, 210227.
  • Engen, S., Lande, R. & Sæther, B.-E. (2007) Using reproductive value to estimate key parameters in density-independent age-structured populations. J. Theor. Biol., 244, 308317.
  • Fagan, W.F. & Holmes, E.E. (2006) Quantifying the extinction vortex. Ecol. Lett., 9, 5160.
  • Fieberg, J. & Ellner, S.P. (2000) When is it meaningful to estimate an extinction probability? Ecology, 81, 20402047.
  • Foley, P. (1994) Predicting extinction times from environmental stochasticity and carrying capacity. Conserv. Biol., 8, 124137.
  • Fox, G.A. & Kendall, B.E. (2002) Demographic stochasticity and the variance reduction effect. Ecology, 83, 19281934.
  • Furstenberg, H. & Kesten, H. (1960) Products of random matrices. Ann. Math. Stat., 31, 457469.
  • Gerber, L.R., McCallum, H., Lafferty, K.D., Sabo, J.L. & Dobson, A. (2005) Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence? Ecol. Appl., 15, 14021414.
  • Gilpin, M.E. & Soule’, M.E. (1986) Minimum viable populations: processes of extinction. In: Conservation Biology: The Science of Scarcity and Diversity (ed. Soule’, M.E. ). Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA, pp. 1934.
  • Ginzburg, L., Slobodkin, L.B., Johnson, K. & Bindman, A.G. (1982) Quasi-extinction probabilities as a measure of impact on population growth. Risk. Anal., 21, 171181.
  • Goodman, D. (2002) Predictive Bayesian population viability analysis: a logic for listing criteria, delisting criteria, and recovery plans. In: Population Viability Analysis (eds Beissinger, S.R. & McCullough, D.R. ). University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, pp. 447469.
  • Halley, J. & Kunin, W. (1999) Extinction risk and the 1/f family of noise models. Theor. Popul. Biol., 56, 215239.
  • Harvey, A.C. (1989) Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  • Heppell, S.S., Crowder, L.B. & Crouse, D.T. (1996) Models to evaluate headstarting as a management tool for long-lived turtles. Ecol. Appl., 6, 556565.
  • Hinrichsen, R. (2002) The accuracy of alternative stochastic growth rate estimates for salmon populations. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 59, 10141023.
  • Holmes, E.E. (2001) Estimating risks in declining populations with poor data. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA, 98, 50725077.
  • Holmes, E.E. (2004) Beyond theory to application and evaluation: diffusion approximations for population viability analysis. Ecol. Appl., 14, 12721293.
  • Holmes, E.E. & Fagan, W.E. (2002) Validating population viability analysis for corrupted data sets. Ecology, 83, 23792386.
  • Holmes, E.E. & Semmens, B. (2004) Population viability analysis for metapopulations: a diffusion approximation approach. In: Ecology, Genetics, and Evolution of Metapopulations (eds Hanski, I. & Gaggiotti, O.E. ), Elsevier Press, Burlington, MA, pp. 565598.
  • Holmes, E.E., Fagan, W.F., Rango, J.J., Folarin, A.J.A.S., Lippe, J.E. & McIntyre, N.E. (2005) Cross Validation of Quasi-Extinction Risks From Real Time Series: An Examination of Diffusion Approximation Methods. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS-NWFSC-67, Washington, DC. 37 pp.
  • Inchausti, P. & Halley, J. (2001) Investigating long-term ecological variability using the Global Population Dynamics Database. Science, 293, 655657.
  • Inchausti, P. & Halley, J. (2002) The long-term temporal variability and spectral colour of animal populations. Evol. Ecol. Res., 4, 10331048.
  • Ives, A.R., Dennis, B., Cottingham, K.L. & Carpenter, S.R. (2003) Estimating community stability and ecological interactions from time-series data. Ecol. Monogr., 73, 301330.
  • Lande, R. (1993) Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticity and random catastrophes. Am. Nat., 142, 911927.
  • Lande, R. & Orzack, S.H. (1988) Extinction dynamics of age-structured populations in a fluctuating environment. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA, 85, 74187421.
  • Lande, R., Engen, S. & Saether, B. (2003) Stochastic Population Dynamics in Ecology and Conservation. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
  • Lewontin, R.C. & Cohen, D. (1969) On population growth in a randomly varying environment. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA, 62, 10561060.
  • Lindley, S.T. (2003) Estimation of population growth and extinction parameters from noisy data. Ecol. Appl., 13, 806813.
  • Ludwig, D. (1996) Uncertainty and the assessment of extinction probabilities. Ecol. Appl., 6, 10671076.
  • Ludwig, D. (1999) Is it meaningful to estimate a probability of extinction? Ecology, 80, 298310.
  • Mace, G.M. & Lande, R. (1991) Assessing extinction threats: toward a reevaluation of IUCN threatened species categories. Conserv. Biol., 5, 148157.
  • McCarthy, M.A., Andelman, S.J. & Possingham, H.P. (2003) Reliability of relative predictions in population viability analysis. Conserv. Biol., 17, 982989.
  • Morris, W.F. & Doak, D.F. (2003) Quantitative Conservation Biology: Theory and Practice of Population Viability Analysis. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA USA.
  • Morris, W.F., Bloch, P.L., Hudgens, B.R., Moyle, L.C. & Stinchcombe, J.R. (2002) The use of population viability analysis in endangered species recovery planning: past trends and recommendations for future improvement. Ecol. Appl., 12, 708712.
  • Nicholson, E. & Possingham, H.P. (2007) Making conservation decisions under uncertainty for the persistence of multiple species. Ecol. Appl., 17, 251265.
  • Pimm, S. (1991) The Balance of Nature? Ecological Issues in the Conservation of Species and Communities. Chicago University Press, Chicago, IL.
  • Pimm, S. & Redfearn, A. (1988) The variability of natural populations. Nature, 334, 613614.
  • Polya, G. (1968) Mathematics and Plausible Reasoning, Vol. II. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
  • Sæther, B.-E. & Engen, S. (2002) Including uncertainty in population viability analysis using population prediction intervals. In: Population Viability Analysis (eds Beissinger, S.R. & McCullough, D.R. ), University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, pp. 191212.
  • Sabo, J.L. & Gerber, L.R. (2007) Predicting extinction risk in spite of predator-prey oscillations. Ecol. Appl., 17, 15431554.
  • Sabo, J.L., Holmes, E.E. & Kareiva, P. (2004) Efficacy of simple viability models in ecological risk assessment: does density dependence matter? Ecology, 85, 328341.
  • Shumway, R.H. & Stoffer, D.S. (1982) An approach to time series smoothing and forecasting using the EM algorithm. J. Time Ser. Anal., 3, 253264.
  • Smitalova, K. & Sujan, S. (1992) A Mathematical Treatment of Dynamical Models in Biological Science. Ellis Horwood Ltd, New York, NY, USA.
  • Staples, D.F., Taper, M.L. & Dennis, B. (2004) Estimating population trend and process variation for PVA in the presence of sampling error. Ecology, 85, 923929.
  • Staples, D.F., Taper, M.L. & Shepard, B.B. (2005) Risk-based viable population monitoring. Conserv. Biol., 19, 19081916.
  • Taylor, B.L. (1995) The reliability of using population viability analysis for risk classification of species. Conserv. Biol., 9, 551558.
  • Taylor, B.L., Wade, P.R., Ramakrishnan, U., Gilpin, M. & Akcakaya, H.R. (2002) Incorporating uncertainty in population viability analyses for the purpose of classifying species by risk. In: Population Viability Analysis (eds Beissinger, S.R. & Mccullough, D.R. ), University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, pp. 239252.
  • Tuljapurkar, S.D. (1989) An uncertain life: demography in random environments. Theor. Popul. Biol., 35, 227294.
  • Tuljapurkar, S.D. & Orzack, S.H. (1980) Population dynamics in variable environments. I. long-run growth rates and extinction. Theor. Popul. Biol., 18, 314342.
  • De Valpine, P. (2002) Review of methods for fitting time-series models with process and observation error and likelihood calculations for nonlinear, non-Gaussian state-space models. Bull. Mar. Sci., 70, 455471.
  • De Valpine, P. & Hastings, A. (2002) Fitting population models incorporating process noise and observation error. Ecol. Monogr., 72, 5776.
  • Wade, P. (2000) Bayesian methods in conservation biology. Conserv. Biol., 14, 13081316.
  • Wilcox, C. & Possingham, H. (2002) Do life history traits affect the accuracy of diffusion approximations for mean time to extinction? Ecol. Appl., 12, 11631179.
  • Wisdom, M.J., Mills, L.S. & Doak, D.F. (2000) Life stage simulation analysis: estimating vital-rate effects on population growth for conservation. Ecology, 81, 628641.