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Appendix S1 Niche and distribution modeling: boosted regression trees.

Appendix S2 Determination of change in estimated niche position in PCA climate space between two time periods.

Figure S1 The distribution of Abies alba, with pollen thresholds as labeled.

Figure S2 The distribution of Carpinus betula, with pollen thresholds as labeled.

Figure S3 The distribution of Corylus avellana, with pollen thresholds as labeled.

Figure S4 The distribution of Fagus sylvatica, with pollen thresholds as labeled.

Figure S5 The distribution of Larix decidua, with pollen thresholds as labeled.

Figure S6 Mean values of the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) and 95% confidence intervals (a, b), and model performance as a function of magnitude of shift in climate space (c, d).

Table S1 Regression statistics and estimates of coefficients for two scenarios, in an analysis of model predictive ability (AUC) as a function of observed change in species realized climate niche position.

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ELE_1150_sm_figs1.doc7845KSupporting info item
ELE_1150_sm_figs2.doc8337KSupporting info item
ELE_1150_sm_figs3.doc8384KSupporting info item
ELE_1150_sm_figs4.doc8327KSupporting info item
ELE_1150_sm_figs5.doc7230KSupporting info item
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ELE_1150_sm_tables1.doc27KSupporting info item

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