Present address: Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust, Slimbridge, Gloucestershire GL2 7BT, UK
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Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network
Article first published online: 11 MAR 2009
DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01297.x
© 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS
Additional Information
How to Cite
Hole, D. G., Willis, S. G., Pain, D. J., Fishpool, L. D., Butchart, S. H. M., Collingham, Y. C., Rahbek, C. and Huntley, B. (2009), Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network. Ecology Letters, 12: 420–431. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01297.x
Publication History
- Issue published online: 6 APR 2009
- Article first published online: 11 MAR 2009
- Editor, Steve Beissinger Manuscript received 17 November 2008 First decision made 23 December 2008 Manuscript accepted 4 February 2009
Keywords:
- Biodiversity;
- biome;
- climate change;
- community disruption;
- extinction risk;
- impacts and adaptation;
- important bird areas;
- persistence;
- range shifts;
- turnover
Abstract
Despite widespread concern, the continuing effectiveness of networks of protected areas under projected 21st century climate change is uncertain. Shifts in species’ distributions could mean these resources will cease to afford protection to those species for which they were originally established. Using modelled projected shifts in the distributions of sub-Saharan Africa’s entire breeding avifauna, we show that species turnover across the continent’s Important Bird Area (IBA) network is likely to vary regionally and will be substantial at many sites (> 50% at 42% of IBAs by 2085 for priority species). Persistence of suitable climate space across the network as a whole, however, is notably high, with 88–92% of priority species retaining suitable climate space in ≥ 1 IBA(s) in which they are currently found. Only 7–8 priority species lose climatic representation from the network. Hence, despite the likelihood of significant community disruption, we demonstrate that rigorously defined networks of protected areas can play a key role in mitigating the worst impacts of climate change on biodiversity.